This week will be very mid-January like, which certainly makes sense given what the calendar says. The week will be mainly dry for many with colder temperatures. There will be a couple chances for snow showers at times across the region.
MONDAY & TUESDAY
A weak clipper system will pass to New England's north during this time frame. The day will generally be calm and on the milder side (relatively speaking) for the most part as the system first lifts a warm front through the region, producing a southwesterly flow. As the system makes its way eastward, it will drag its cold front across the region, likely producing scattered snow showers (with some rain showers possible at lower elevations).
The day will be sort of similar to a summer thunderstorm day with dry and calm conditions for most of the day with a broken line of scattered snow showers pushing west to east through the afternoon and evening. Moisture is very limited, so this line will break down as it pushes eastward with more areas east of the mountains likely remaining dry versus getting a snow shower.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather early this evening:
By Tuesday morning, the cold front will have cleared the region, ushering in another shot of colder air. Overall, the setup beginning on Tuesday will be similar to Tuesday to Thursday last week with the region under broad cyclonic flow. A deepening low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes combined with high pressure to the west will create a tight pressure gradient, resulting in a cold wind. With that said, the winds or cold don't look to be quite at the same level as last week.
As for snow showers, a weak low pressure system will likely form along the cold front in the Gulf of Maine. This will help scattered snow showers continue for eastern Maine on Tuesday. Broad cyclonic flow will also allow upslope snow showers to continue across the mountains. Another pulse of steadier and more widespread mountain snow may accompany a disturbance rippling through the cyclonic flow Tuesday evening and overnight. Outside of the mountains will remain precipitation-free during this time.
Overall, this latest edition of upslope snow showers is poised to bring another layer of fluffy snow to the mountains with a few inches possible in northern Vermont. A quick inch or so of snow is possible across the rest of the northern third of the region through Wednesday morning.
Below: Probability of seeing at least an inch of snow through Wednesday morning:
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
The mid to late week time frame will be generally dry with no widespread precipitation events expected. Mountain snow showers are expected to dwindle through the day Wednesday as ridging builds in. Another cold front is likely to approach later Thursday into Friday morning, but will weaken substantially upon arrival and produce no more than a couple flurries. High pressure begins to build back into New England for Friday.
The coldest days of the week will likely be Wednesday and Thursday as a deep northwest flow continues behind the departing system. Highs will be in the 20s for most, with teens for the northern tier. Winds will remain elevated on Wednesday, bringing wind chills down to the single digits and teens. Winds will begin to slacken on Thursday.
Return flow on Friday ahead of an approaching trough will create warm air advection and allow for a warm-up as flow turns from the southwest both aloft and at the surface. Temperatures on Friday will likely get a couple notches more mild versus Tuesday through Thursday.
WEEKEND
Heading into the weekend, a large-scale trough will enter the picture for New England. Temperatures will continue to climb into Saturday, with highs above average region-wide as a warm front is pushed into the region. This will be followed by a strong cold front likely Saturday afternoon into the overnight. With milder temperatures, this will likely be a mainly rain shower event for much of New England.
The northern tier of New England could see snow showers depending on how quickly the colder air can come back down as the cold front pushes through. At this point, this doesn't appear to be a significant precipitation maker, but the weekend will likely be unsettled, mainly Saturday and/or Saturday night.
BEYOND
Heading into late Sunday and early next week, another system may take shape around the mid-Atlantic. Where this system develops and tracks remain up in the air, but the unsettled conditions look to generally continue after Sunday. This system will have the potential to be more impactful than the weekend system. Ensembles are naturally all over the place at this stage with some showing no development and others holding the system off until mid-week.
What's much more certain after this weekend is the return of much colder air. As the weekend/early week trough departs, it will wrap cold air around it and into the central United States. Next week is looking very cold for a majority of the country as this push of colder air looks deep and wide spreading.
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