In our forecast post for this week published on Tuesday, we mentioned that a coastal storm would likely be coming this weekend for New England. This storm had the potential to bring heavy rain, strong winds and possibly coastal flooding.
While this storm will still be forming, and is still likely to become a rather potent system, it's looking increasingly likely to stay south of New England. We mentioned this possibility in that forecast post, and noted that if this happened, impacts would be limited.
Earlier this week, it looked like this storm would have an open door into New England as a cutoff area of low pressure in Canada slides east, away from New England. Now, it looks increasingly likely that the cutoff low will stall near Nova Scotia, or even move back westward a bit. This will block the coastal storm from advancing northward into New England, effectively shutting that door.
While this doesn't mean the weekend will be totally dry for everyone, we won't be talking about inches of rain, damaging wind gusts and coastal flooding. Showers will be possible, mainly Saturday afternoon through the overnight, across Connecticut, Rhode Island and the South Shore.
The exact track still needs to be hammered down, but there are also hints at a completely rain free weekend for all of southern New England. Either way, a washout certainly won't happen.
The cutoff low to the north will likely cycle some showers into northern Maine and northern New Hampshire (with snow showers at the summits of the White Mountains possible) Saturday through Sunday morning, but a washout, like southern New England, will not happen. A thick layer of clouds will persist in these areas for the weekend.
Should the southward trend with the storm system continue (and everything currently points to this), Sunday should see at least some clearing for nearly everyone with generally more sun than Saturday along with seasonable temperatures.
Heading into next week, generally unsettled weather is expected as blocking over the Atlantic takes hold along with a ridge over central Canada. This setup supports daily shower chances during the afternoon. These showers would be similar to this past week, with quick, spotty showers disrupting an otherwise dry day.
Models are starting to pick up on a potential coastal storm in the middle of next week moving into (or south of) the Gulf of Maine. Naturally, with the models looking six to seven full days out, impacts (if any), timing and strength are uncertain, especially looking at what has happened with the coastal storm for this weekend. It will be something to watch as next week begins.
Euro model showing the coastal storm on Wednesday, October 18. Major models are keeping the storm mostly offshore, but being nearly a week out, this can change:
As far as temperatures go, seasonable is the word. There are no strong signals for any major warm-ups or cool-down through much of next week. Temperatures are looking to cool off from where they are at the end of this week, but nothing notably cool by mid-October standards. Overall, New England will be staying in a very fall-like pattern. Surprising in the middle of October, right?
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