It's going to be another warm week when it comes to weather in New England, with potential record highs on Thursday and Friday before a cold front sweeps the region, leading to a more seasonable Saturday. The week will start off with highs in the 40s for most of the region and will steadily climb each day. There will be a weak disturbance to cross the region tonight.
This disturbance will bring light snow showers across most of the region. Total accumulations will be around an inch or two across much of northern New England. There could be higher amounts in the Green and White Mountains, where up to 6 inches is possible. These higher amounts will be elevation based, areas lower than 2,000 feet are unlikely to see more than a couple inches.
After this disturbance, the warming trend for the week really takes off. Flow will once again come from the south, leading to more spring like temperatures for the end of this week. The National Weather Service of Gray, Maine states:
"One of these short-lived intrusions will be overhead as the period opens Tuesday night...but quickly replaced by broad southwesterly flow across the Continental United States as progressive longwave trough over the western part of North America marches east. This will result in a dramatic warming trend for the middle of the week before the associated low/cold front moves through the region on Friday bringing the most impactful weather of the long term period before another intrusion of polar air drives into the region on Saturday before return flow brings moderating conditions to end the weekend."
On Friday, a storm will likely cross the region. As of now, this storm appears that it will track through northern New England. This will lead to a winter washout for basically the entire region. The strength of this storm has been trending downward, with models now projecting no more than a quarter inch of rain at most. This storm may also produce a period of winds, the strength of which will be something to watch as the week progresses.
This storm will drag a strong cold front across the region on Friday. The timing of this front will determine potential record highs on Friday. On Thursday night, temperatures will struggle to drop below to the 40s in northern New England and will hover around 50 in southern New England.
This will lead to very mild temps on Friday morning. Depending on the timing of the front, these morning temps may be the high for the day, with little to no warming in the afternoon. This timing remains uncertain and will be fine tuned as the week progresses.
Looking toward the longer range forecast, temperatures are looking to remain spring-like at least for the first part of next week after a one day cooldown on Saturday. Temperatures are generally forecast to be above average from February 19-22. Much of New England has a 70-80% chance of above average temperatures during this time. Chances start to drop off as you head into Maine.
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