With one week to go until Thanksgiving, here's a look at how weather patterns will be setting up for next week. After being dominated by ridging and high pressure for much of the fall, the pattern has certainly changed, beginning with the current long-duration storm we're dealing with right now. This generally more active pattern will continue into next week, though it certainly won't be stormy all week long.
Here's the summary, read below for the details:
EARLY WEEK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)
Thanksgiving week will start off with our current system finally pushing away from New England. The system will likely be working across Nova Scotia on Sunday, with continued rain and snow showers across northernmost New England Saturday night into the morning. As of now, it looks like any leftover showers on Sunday will be within the mountains with the rest of New England drying out.
The last burst of rain and snow showers with this system across the north Saturday night into Sunday morning may leave a bit of snow on the ground near the Canadian border. Much of the international border from the Northeast Kingdom through Fort Kent, Maine has a 50+% chance of seeing at least 2 inches of snow by Sunday afternoon.
Monday will likely see a ridge of high pressure build into the region between the departing system and an incoming one. This will provide a calm, quiet and seasonable day for Monday. As quickly as this high builds, it will break down with the next system skirting through New England in the Monday night to Tuesday time frame. This system isn't likely to be too strong and will likely only produce showery weather. This would be rain showers across southern and central areas with some mixing or light snow showers across the north.
MID-WEEK (WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING)
The Monday night to Tuesday system is currently looking to slide away by Wednesday with dry conditions returning (except for typical upslope precipitation in the mountains). As for Thanksgiving itself, it is currently looking mainly dry, however, a system from the Pacific will be working across the country. This system will, in all likelihood, drive New England's weather from Thanksgiving day right through the weekend. Thanksgiving day will likely be chilly as the Tuesday system will help usher in a colder air mass for the rest of the week.
Below: Current weather map for the morning of Thanksgiving:
While most guidance currently keeps Thanksgiving day mainly dry in New England for now, timing on the above system still needs to be worked out and could send some precipitation into New England later on Thanksgiving itself. The trends have been for the system to enter New England after Thanksgiving, so we'll go into the details on it in the next section.
LATE WEEK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)
As of now, guidance has been pushing this cross country system more toward Friday or Saturday rather than Thanksgiving. Initially, many models had the system moving through on Thanksgiving itself, but large changes from run to run are expected at this time range (and these changes will continue over the next few days). The overall setup will favor this system passing close by over the ocean with the jet stream in the vicinity.
The system passing by earlier in the week will advect a colder air mass into New England for the remainder of the week. This could set up a situation with wintry precipitation, especially for the interior of New England. The track and timing (and track) of the system will determine who gets what (rain vs snow vs sleet vs etc.) and how much. That's if the system tracks close enough to bring precipitation to New England, which is still a big if.
There's been rumblings around the internet over the past 24 hours or so about this being a potentially large snowstorm. There's no way to possibly determine the extent of a storm with more than a week to go. As we said earlier, we're in the phase where models will change drastically from run to run. The major models also differ mightily between each other. The possibility is there for a storm at the end of Thanksgiving week. Whether it manages to affect New England or not (or give a glancing blow) remains to be seen.
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