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Writer's pictureTim Dennis

New England's Pattern Remains Favorable for Persistently Cold Air

After a brief break, New England will be reverting back to a pattern more akin to last week, though the cold, wind and mountain snow won't be quite to the level of last week. A cold front helping to produce snow showers across the north will usher in a colder air mass once again for the rest of the work week. A much more potent blast of colder air will be coming after this weekend.


The front has cleared New England as of Tuesday morning, setting up a cold next few days. While it won't be Arctic, widespread highs in the teens north to 20s south will be present, especially Wednesday and Thursday. Multiple weak disturbances will rotate into New England as broad cyclonic flow hangs over the region. Snow showers from these disturbances will hang across the northern third of New England, but it will bring reinforcing shots of cold air and windy conditions to the entire region through Friday.



The wind won't be nearly as persistent this week as it was last week. Winds will back off after just two days on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, gusts will be back into the 10-15mph range. This level will remain in place through Friday before possibly becoming elevated again for a time on Saturday, however, this won't be a cold wind as flow shifts from the southwest, ushering in a much more mild air mass.



Saturday will likely be the warmest day in weeks for many across New England as afternoon temperatures shoot into the 40s for southern and central New England. It will be cooler across the northern third of New England, but even here will have a chance to reach above freezing for a time.


This will come ahead of a frontal system that creates a southwest flow for the region on Saturday. A warm front will push through New England Saturday morning followed by a cold front later Saturday into Sunday morning. This will produce a showery day for New England. With marginal temperatures, a rain/snow mix or snow showers will be possible across the north. Southern and central New England will see rain showers. This will not be a big precipitation maker with limited accumulations (both rain and snow).



This push of milder air will not last long. The frontal system's cold front will likely have crossed New England by Sunday morning, allowing colder air to filter back into the region once again. This cold front will just be the start of what is looking to be the coldest air of the season thus far coming next week.


The Arctic blast of air coming next week will likely peak (or bottom out) early to mid-week. This blast will likely be deep and widespread across the central and eastern United States. For New England, the lowest temperatures appear poised to come in the Monday-Wednesday time frame, though timing could still shift around at this stage.



Like the last blast of arctic air earlier this month, the core of the coldest air (relative to average) is poised to drop to our west and south. With that said, the entire east, including New England, will be in a position to see very cold temperatures well below average. There are indications of temperatures 10 to 25 degrees below average across the central and eastern United States, though there remains a spread in just how cold it will get. Again, New England will be more on the fringes with the coldest air remaining to the west. Freezing temperatures may be able to reach the Gulf Coast.


Below: Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook, showing a chilly US. It should be noted that the Climate Prediction's forecast confidence in this period is a rare 5 out of 5, indicating well above average confidence in these below average temperatures:


This blast of cold air will be coming mainly thanks to a strong negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO). When this oscillation is negative, a large ridge typically builds near the Alaskan and western US coasts with a deep trough digging into the central and eastern United States. A strongly negative EPO favors a cross-polar flow from Siberia to move southward into the United States while keeping Alaska very mild (as seen above).


Siberia often contains some of the coldest air on Earth. Naturally, it will modify and warm some as it moves southward. The question will be how much Arctic air can the air mass hold on to as it drops south? Other points of origin for very cold air masses in the United States include Canada, Alaska and near the North Pole.



The other question becomes will any storms be able to take advantage of the cold and bring New England Snow? A quickly developing area of low pressure off the coast will need to be watched later Sunday into Monday. The cold front crossing on Sunday may slow down as it reaches the New England coast.


An area of low pressure may form along the cold front and bring New England a period of snow, though this remains highly uncertain. The main uncertainty stems from whether or not the push of cold air will be enough to suppress this system to our south. It will all come down to the timing and location of the cold front and the colder air behind it. This will determine how offshore this system tracks.


Below: Probability of at least moderate winter weather impacts around Monday of next week (January 20):


Overall, long-term guidance favors this persistently cold January to hold strong. General troughing over the eastern United States is expected to generally remain in place through the month. It won't be Arctic cold for the rest of the month, but below average days will likely outnumber the above average ones for the next couple weeks, at least.






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About Me

My name is Timothy Dennis. I'm a weather enthusiast who was born and raised here in New England. All my life I have been fascinated by the weather. Here I write about New England's current weather while documenting past weather events. 

 

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