After a nice break from rainy weather, another system is approaching New England. This storm, while not looking as potent as some of our previous systems, will have the chance to produce strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours at the end of this week.
TODAY
Warm, humid air will be pumped into the region ahead of the system's cold front. This will ramp up the amount of moisture in the atmosphere and allow for increased clouds and perhaps morning showers. This increased cloud cover will do two things for Friday: limit temperatures to the low to mid 70s and limit the amount of instability for afternoon thunderstorms to be able to become severe.
With this limitation on the strength of thunderstorms, an outbreak of severe weather is not expected. Southern Vermont and Western Massachusetts will have the greatest chance to see some severe thunderstorms. Overall, a majority of storms should remain sub-severe. Strong winds and hail will be the main threats. The large hail risk is higher than it has been for this summer, with a 15% chance of large hail in the areas in yellow on the map below, and a 5% chance across the areas in dark green on the map.
With dew points approaching 70 degrees for much of New England Friday, there will be plenty of moisture for storms to work with. The biggest threat in these storms will be torrential downpours. While the setup isn't as conducive for the type of rainfall we've seen from storms in July, there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere to produce localized heavy rain in storms leading to some flooding issues. Pretty much all of New England will have a chance to see heavy downpours Friday.
There could be a widespread inch of rain across New England with locally higher amounts in areas that get stuck under torrential downpours. Storm training will be possible where multiple storms travel over the same areas again and again.
While showers and storms will possible all day, the storms will generally become more widespread after the morning. The most storms will fire up in the afternoon and evening as the cold front crosses the region. The exception may be northern Vermont. Depending on what exactly happens with storms on Thursday night, that area may see more limited activity on Friday. That's why this area is left out of the highest strong storm and flooding categories on the maps above.
It looks like the main line of storms connected to the cold front will enter western areas around mid-afternoon and track southeast. Storms will be most potent in these western areas with storms likely weakening at least somewhat as they travel eastward.
HRRR showing where the main line of storms is expected to be this evening:
WEEKEND
This storm system is progressive, and will begin to exit the region early Saturday morning. Much of New England has another very nice weekend on the way with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity. Eastern Maine may see some lingering thunderstorms on Saturday as the system continues to pull away, but the rest of New England is looking mainly dry.
BEYOND
Humidity and temperatures will increase into the early part of next week. The region's next thunderstorm day is looking to be Tuesday as another system moves into the area. As per usual, it looks like these storms will have the chance to drop torrential rainfall and create localized flooding issues. Things look to dry out after Tuesday with the humidity roller coaster continuing as dew points once again drop following Tuesday's storms.
Comments