One of New England's longest dry stretches of the summer is coming to an end this evening, as a weak area of low pressure begins to push straight through New England. This will lead to a very wet Friday, with steady rain looking likely for much of the region.
THURSDAY
The area of high pressure that's been in control for much of this week is slowly sliding eastward. This high pressure is being rather stubborn and is hanging around a bit longer than initially anticipated. This will lead to a drier Thursday during the daylight hours. Only far western areas will see scattered showers during the day Friday, although clouds will thicken well before the rain's arrival.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Once the high pressure departs this evening, the shield of precipitation will be able to advance eastward much more quickly. Despite this, rainfall rates will likely take a while to pick up, the rain will start as a drizzle before becoming steady toward the morning. Maine will remain dry Thursday night.
Euro model showing light showers in western areas breaking out late this evening:
Photo byECMWF/Tropical Tidbits
FRIDAY
The storm will organize and become a bit stronger throughout Thursday night into Friday. This will allow steadier bands of rain to develop. Rain will likely become heavier in the morning, around daybreak for much of the region, away from Maine. Locally heavy downpours will be possible throughout the morning hours. Like many of our storms this summer, rainfall rates likely won't be consistent all morning, sometimes it will be drizzling, other times it will be a torrential downpour.
HRRR showing numerous downpours and steady rain around mid-morning:
Photo by HRRR/Tropical Tidbits
As we head into the afternoon, the heaviest and most widespread rain will shift offshore. A thick cloud cover will remain and scattered showers and a few downpours will be possible throughout the afternoon and evening, but, again, it won't be nearly as widespread as the morning hours. There could be another bubble-up of downpours later in the evening, around sunset heading into the first half of the evening, but this is not locked in.
There's still some discrepancies on where the highest rainfall totals will end up in New England. Despite this, many models are coming into agreement that it will be in southern New England and central New England, from Lake Winnipesaukee south. There will likely be a widespread half an inch to inch and a half of rain across much of New England by early Saturday morning, with isolated spots seeing up to three inches, most likely in the darkest green area on the map below.
In the end, rainfall amounts will hinge on just how strong the system is able to get Friday morning, as well as the exact track the system takes. Right now, it appears the center of the system will cross over central New England.
The flash flood risk is low, but it is still there. With the possibility of torrential downpours, there is a chance that a majority of the rainfall above will fall within a short period of time. There could be some isolated flood issues, but nothing like what we've seen in some other storms earlier in the summer.
WEEKEND
Heading into Saturday, this system will be departing, however, it will remain fairly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms around. A weak cold front will drop through the region during the day. This will lead to a round of showers and thunderstorms. Northern New England is looking the wettest on Saturday, with less and less showery weather as you head south in the region.
There will very likely be many more dry hours than wet hours Saturday. Highs will also be warmer for southern and central areas, climbing back to around average after a chilly, damp Friday. Northern areas will remain cooler thanks to generally wetter weather, more cloud cover and an earlier arrival of the cold front.
Euro model showing more numerous shower activity north in the afternoon. There will be a chance for showers region-wide during the day Saturday, though:
Photo by ECMWF/Tropical Tidbits
The very gradual drying trend will continue on Sunday, with showers less numerous than Saturday. Like Saturday, the highest chance for a shower will be across the northern third of New England, particularly in the higher elevations. The rest of New England will see partly cloudy skies with the chance of a passing shower. The day will be cooler than Saturday, with slightly below average highs, mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Scattered, light showers persist into Sunday, but the day will be dry a vast majority of the time for much of New England:
Photo byECMWF/Tropical Tidbits
BEYOND
Heading into next week, the cool temperatures are looking to continue, with 60s and 70s dominating over 80s. Hurricane Franklin will likely pass well offshore of New England around the middle of next week. This could send some large waves and rip currents toward New England. That will be something to watch. Without anything to pull the storm toward New England, it will very likely remain well offshore.
Photo bytropicaltidbits.com
We're watching a potential disturbance to cross New England in the middle of next week as well. Franklin could come just close enough to add some tropical moisture into that storm.
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