New England's gradual descent into winter continues as we move into November. Average high temperatures drop another 10-15 degrees from November 1st to the 30th. November can end up feeling a lot like fall or a lot like winter in New England. This November may skew more toward a fall feel rather than an early start on winter.
TEMPERATURES
November will generally begin where October left off with a trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern. This will lead to continued above average temperatures for much of the eastern United States. New England will be more seasonable this weekend into Monday as the region will be more on the edge of the ridge.
Heading beyond Monday, the trough will deepen across the west, allowing the eastern ridge to build further. A system in the center of the country will lift a warm front through New England Monday into Tuesday, allowing for another brief run of well above average temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. Another round of widespread 60s north and 70s south will be possible.
500mb height anomaly on Tuesday afternoon, showing the trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern:
The ridge will force the system across the central United States well to the north of New England around the middle of next week. The system's cold front will likely get pulled across the region later Wednesday into Thursday. This would end this most recent bout of very warm air and bring the region back down to seasonable levels heading toward the end of next week.
Overall, the temperature roller coaster will continue for New England with cooler weather this weekend into early next week (November 2-4), a warm-up for the middle of next week (November 5-7) followed by more cool weather to end next week (November 8-10). Still, generally mild weather may continue to stick around longer than chilly weather. This would come as the above average temperatures will be well above average and the cooler times will be around seasonable rather than well below average.
Below: Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day temperature outlook, which currently covers November 7-11:
There is uncertainty heading into the end of next week (around November 9-11) as above average heights are predicted across most of the United States, with the exception of the southwest. New England, however, may be on the edge of a ridge and trough. After the cold frontal passage around the latter part of next week, additional bouts of cooler air will be possible across New England while much of the rest of the country (again outside of the southwest) will be under ridging.
This is why the chances for above average temperatures fade into near average moving through New England in the above graphic from the CPC. Another issue is that models have a tendency to struggle with the evolution of troughs in the desert southwest, especially in the longer range.
Below: Euro showing 500mb height anomaly heading into next weekend. You can see ridging for much of the country with troughing over the southwest. New England is sitting near the edge of the expansive ridge and troughing:
Heading into the middle of the month (around November 11), general ridging is currently favored to win out for the eastern United States. This favors generally above average temperatures continuing with more brief bouts of cooler weather. Cold air intrusions will still occur as cold fronts cross New England, but they may be brief and not overly cold by mid-November standards. The warmest temperatures will likely be to the west of New England during this time, as seen in the CPC's 8-14 day outlook.
Below: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day outlook, showing the better chances for above average warmth to New England's west, but odds still favor generally mild conditions for all of the east:
Heading toward the end of the month, persistence may be the name of the game. That is to say general ridging may continue into the latter part of the month for the eastern United States. This would keep the generally above average weather rolling. Again, there will be cold air intrusions into New England, which is a fact of life, regardless of what long range models show in regards to temperatures, so it won't be consistently above average even if the mild times generally win out over chilly times.
Below: Euro 500mb height anomaly average for November 18-25, showing ridging continuing across the east:
Overall, we're predicting an above average November temperature-wise. There will be cold air intrusions from time to time, but they may be brief and not overly cold. While the chances for a warm November are higher to New England's west, it does appear that this more mild air will still win out more often than not for New England as well. The above average warmth is currently looking to override the cold air intrusions once November is all done and temperatures are averaged together.
PRECIPITATION
New England has seen a very dry fall thus far. This generally drier weather is looking to persist into the start of November. The only real shower chances for New England upcoming will be from warm and cold frontal passages next week. Both of these passages are looking to bring New England limited precipitation. With systems continuing to get directed well to the north of New England, rainfall will continue to get held to the north as well.
Current Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast:
New England's overall weather pattern has been for prolonged periods of expansive ridging with brief and weak troughing in between. This is what has led to this very dry fall with limited shower chances. This general pattern may continue for at least the first half of November. This doesn't mean a soaking rainfall won't happen at all this month, but dry times may generally continue. The question is will the troughing that does come be able to produce meaningful rain. Only time will tell on that front.
Below: Climate Prediction Center monthly rainfall outlook:
LOOKING BACK
October ended up playing out just about as expected in the temperature department for New England. It was a generally cooler first half followed by a warmer second half. The warmth in the second half got pretty high (as we just felt on Halloween), so the month as a whole skewed above average. We predicted a seasonable October that had a better chance to skew slightly warmer than average, which is what ended up happening thanks to the late month heat.
We also predicted a near average month for precipitation. This did not occur as New England ended up well below average with rainfall. The driest conditions were forecast for the center of the county, but an expansive ridge pushed eastward, allowing New England to see both dry weather and warm weather. We mentioned there was uncertainty in the eastward extent of this ridge, but it did manage to push to the eastern United States for the second half of the month.
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