November is when New England begins to hurdle toward winter weather, which has been seen here in the final days of October. Exactly how is this November shaking out? Read the details below.
TEMPERATURES
After starting the month on the chilly side, New England will be warming up for the rest of the week and into the weekend. An area of high pressure will park itself to our south. The flow around this high pressure will allow the southern two thirds of New England to warm back up to above average temperatures for Friday through Sunday (November 3-5).
A frontal boundary will slowly approach New England from Canada during this time. This will keep the northern third of New England cooler than the rest as disturbances ride along the front, bringing more clouds and precipitation chances. Highs are still looking to return to around average for these areas.
Heading into the first full week of November, that cold front to the north of New England will dive southward through the region early in the week (November 6-7). This will end this brief stint with above average temperatures. For the second week (November 7-14), the United States will likely go into a ridge-in-the-west, trough-in-the-east type of pattern.
This will favor a return to cooler than average temperatures for New England heading toward the middle of the month. This will be aided by typical reinforcements of cold air dropping into New England. These shots of colder air have an easier path into New England amid troughing in the east.
Getting into the second half of the month, there are signals of another warm-up (warm-up being relative to average, which is the low 40s to low 50s by the second half of November) as the milder air in the west spreads east. This will be contingent on numerous factors. One of the factors is the NAO Index, which is currently forecast to remain negative through at least mid-November. There are signals that the NAO Index will approach a positive phase by the second half of the month (negative NAO favors a cooler east while positive favors a milder east).
Overall, there are not many strong signals for excessive warmth or chill in the second half of November, and confidence in any long-range guidance is below average. November is proving to be a bit of a puzzle to figure out. This can be seen in the NOAA's 3-4 week temperature outlook, which has a vast majority of the county in the "equal chances" category for temperatures being above or below average.
For these reasons, we're predicting a very average month overall temperature-wise, with brief 2-4 day warm-ups followed by more prolonged periods of near average temperatures. Again, it's important to remember that November average temperatures steadily drop, and warm-ups at the end of November will not be similar to warm-ups at the beginning. Average highs drop about 10-12° through the month.
One other quick note is that the ever-strengthening El-Nino will likely begin to play a larger role in monthly outlooks from here on out. The above average temperatures expected to stretch eastern Alaska through western Canada and into the western US is indicative of an El-Nino winter.
PRECIPITATION
To continue the theme of an average November, precipitation will likely be around average. There are signals of a wetter first half of November with a dry-out for the second half of the month. As for snow, a majority of New England sees their first measurable snowfall this month. Northern Maine saw New England's first widespread snowfall outside the mountains this week.
LOOKING BACK
Our October outlook played out as expected. We predicted an up and down month temperature-wise. There were a few warm-ups followed by cool-downs returning the region to average. The whole month ended up being mild thanks to more intense warm-ups than cool-downs. The cool-downs really just dropped New England back to average temperatures, not below average. Overnight remained very mild; 14 nights in Boston were above average, with some nights not dropping below the average high for the day.
We also stated that early season snow wasn't favored for New England, and only northern Maine saw measurable snow at the very end of the month, which is typically when they get their first snow.
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