This weekend through Halloween will begin with potentially record breaking warmth and end with potentially the first snowfall of the season for New England (outside the mountain tops, of course).
SATURDAY
The weekend will begin with a continuation of the pattern that New England has been in for the past few days. This pattern being an expansive area of high pressure to the south of New England with a frontal boundary to the north. This will lead to a day very similar to the past few days in New England with very warm weather and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies in southern and central New England with generally cooler and cloudier weather across the northern third of the region.
The warmth for southern New England will peak on Saturday, with new daily record highs for October 27th possible. Highs will be very similar to that of Friday, shooting into the upper 70s to low 80s for southern New England. Dew points will climb into the low to even mid 60s, so it may even feel a bit humid as well.
A cold front will drop through New England during the day on Saturday. This will usher in much cooler weather for Sunday (although much cooler in this case just means returning to near average). This front will bring more clouds and cooler temperatures to northern New England Saturday. The front does not have much moisture to work with, so only some lighter showers are expected across northern New England during the passage of the front Saturday afternoon.
Euro model showing (not very impressive) showers from the cold front Saturday afternoon:
SUNDAY
It will take some time for the cold front to clear New England, but high temperatures on Sunday will be significantly cooler than Saturday. High temperatures Sunday afternoon will struggle to rise more than 5-6 degrees from overnight lows for many. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s in northern New England and the mid to upper 50s in southern New England.
Clouds will be increasing during the day as a storm system begins to approach from the west. Rainfall from this system will likely begin Sunday afternoon across Connecticut and spread from southwest to northeast across New England from Sunday evening through the overnight hours. The bulk of the rain is looking to fall across New England during the overnight hours.
Expected weather overnight Sunday to Monday:
MONDAY
On Monday, the rain should be steadiest and most widespread in the morning. Showers will, however, linger across all of New England throughout the day. Monday morning is also when the precipitation will likely make it to northern Maine, where the storm may produce the first measurable snowfall for New England outside mountain summits.
Expected weather early Monday afternoon, showing showers continuing across New England with snow showers in northern Maine:
Snowfall amounts are generally looking to be light, with a general 1-3 inches possible. As of now, it's more likely for the snow to end up on the lower end of that total, with more 1" amounts likely than 3" amounts. Some mixing will also be possible across the Great North Woods of New Hampshire and the higher elevations of Vermont.
As for rain, amounts will generally be a half an inch to an inch for most of New England, with the most likely falling across northern Massachusetts, southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire. These areas could see some amounts higher than an inch. Some guidance is pushing a narrow band of up to 2 inches.
The rain and snow will gradually taper off by Monday evening and shut down completely around sunset for most.
HALLOWEEN
By Halloween, New England flips the page from above average to below average as the coldest air of the season takes aim at the region. Highs on Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 40s for the entire region, with most locations likely failing to get there. Some spots in northern New England may not get out of the 30s.
Temperature departure from average, looking a lot more blue and purple, indicating chilly temps:
The day will, however, be dry and pretty bright. The dry weather should continue into the evening for trick-or-treating, however, another system will likely begin approaching by Tuesday night.
BEYOND
We'll be watching a potential mid-week storm for New England. There is still quite a range within models on what this system will do, with some models hinting at more snow/mixed precipitation much further south than Monday while others barely show any showers, rain or snow. We'll be watching.
Euro model vs GFS showing weather Wednesday afternoon. You can see two very different outcomes currently depicted:
No matter what the storm does, the chilly weather will be sticking around for much of next week.
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