The pitfalls of spring temperatures will be apparent over these next two days. It may be early in the season (and we’re still over a week away from the official start to spring), but Wednesday and Thursday will serve as a preview for the next couple of months. On Wednesday, a cold front will bring a quick end to this above-average warmth. Temperatures will drop, but only back to around seasonal averages for most. The coolest relative to averages will be across the northern tier.
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, a northern stream trough will skirt through the region. While moisture will be highly limited, the system may be able to spark some scattered snow showers across the region. High pressure just to the east of Maine will also create dry air to help eat into this weak system, making it more difficult to produce anything widespread.
There's a lot more working against this system than working for it, so very little to no accumulation will occur. Weather Prediction Center probabilities now top out at just 10% for an inch of snow anywhere in New England. The period of best lift for this system will likely pass very early in the morning with snow showers/flurry activity shutting down by sunrise.
Below: NAM showing potential weather just after midnight tonight:
That area of high pressure to Maine's east will likely settle around the Nova Scotia area for Thursday. This will bring about an onshore flow and sea breeze for Thursday. As is the case throughout the springtime, this will result in a mainly cloudy, raw and damp feeling through the day. Highs will likely end up cooler than Wednesday given this onshore setup.
Thursday will be the first in what will likely be a large handful of days just like it over the next couple months. It’s creating seasonable temperatures now (widespread 30s north and 40s south, not exactly cold for mid-March), but this setup will hit harder when it creates 40° days in late April (which it will).
A rebound in temperatures will begin on Friday as a southerly flow begins to return ahead of a potent storm system working across the country. This will be a very spring-like storm for the country with the potential for heavy snow on its backside in the northern plains, a severe weather outbreak in the south, heavy rain ahead of the cold front and an increased fire risk across Texas and Oklahoma.
For New England, the primary storm will track to the north, making this an all-rain event region-wide. A secondary area of low pressure may form along the cold front as it approaches New England, allowing for a blossoming of rainfall over southern New England. This system may follow a similar trend as this past week’s rain event with a shield of moderate to heavy rainfall ahead of a cold/occluded front. The system looks to peak for New England late Sunday into Monday.
A deep southerly flow ahead of the storm will allow for a surge in temperatures and humidity. Precipitable water values could reach over an inch for southern New England, which is an indication of a moisture-rich environment that will be capable of producing bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall. Overall, a widespread half inch to inch of rain remains the most likely outcome at this point. Southern New England remains the most likely area to see over an inch as the secondary area of low pressure works up the cold front.
Below: Current 7-day precipitation forecast (with very little to no precipitation coming outside of this storm in the next week, this can be used as a look at forecast QPF for this storm):
There will also be a better chance for substantial snowmelt across the mountains compared to last week's storm. River rises and ice breakup in rivers will be possible once again with this one. Ice jam flooding will once again need to be monitored. The extent of river rises and potential ice jams is hard to say this far out, but the potential is there for some river flooding across northern areas.
Upslope enhancement could elevate rain totals across the White Mountains and an additional 1-2 inches of runoff from snowmelt is possible. The snowpack will already be ripened by the start of this storm, unlike last week's storm, so the snow will be ready to melt immediately. Areas around 1,500-2,000 feet could see a near melt-out.
A NOTE ON BRUSH FIRE SEASON
New England is now quickly approaching its annual brush fire season, which typically runs from about mid-March to mid-May. The risk of brush fires becomes elevated once the snowpack has completely melted out and all the brush underneath has dried out. While much of northern New England still has snow cover for now, southern New England has just about melted out outside of the highest terrain.
A generally dry stretch of weather over the past several days has allowed for the first fires of the season to break out in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. This comes after a hyper-active fall fire season burned thousands of acres across the region in October and November as a drought rapidly began and expanded across the region.
Drought conditions are continuing across portions of New England, though conditions have continued to gradually improve. There's also the aforementioned soaking on the way in a few days. With drier than normal soils heading into the spring, brush fire season will need to be monitored closely over the next couple months as dry stretches between rainfalls will allow for fuel sources to dry quickly. It will take multiple soaking rain events still to bring the drought to a close.
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