The all important week that starts with Christmas and ends with New Year's is upon us once again. This year, the week will start off very quiet, but a storm may be brewing for the middle of the week. Here's what it's looking like:
SATURDAY
Saturday will start off cold, with morning lows mainly in the teens to low 20s. An area of high pressure will quickly pass overhead Friday night, allowing for strong cooling. This high pressure will set up to the east of New England for Saturday, allowing a more southerly flow to return. This will boost afternoon highs into the mid 30s north to mid 40s south. The day will start off partly cloudy, but clouds will likely fill in for the afternoon. Overall, Saturday will be a very pleasant day.
CHRISTMAS EVE-CHRISTMAS DAY
Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, a very weak disturbance will slide through New England. This disturbance will run into very dry air and the high pressure to New England's east. This will result in some scattered festive flurries. Western New England will be more likely to see a flurry or rain shower, with chances dropping as you head east. Overall, many in New England will stay dry during this time. A majority of the activity will happen before sunrise as well.
Expected weather around 1am Sunday:
The day Sunday will generally be a repeat of Saturday, except the morning won't be nearly as cold. The day will likely feature a mostly cloudy sky with temperatures a few degrees warmer than Saturday. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s region-wide.
High pressure remains in firm control for Christmas Day. There's not a whole lot to say about Christmas weather for New England this year except calm, quiet and mild. Highs will push into the 40s for all of New England (minus northern Maine, which may get held to the upper 30s). Typical warm spots in southern and central New England may make a run at 50°.
Christmas weather across the country:
TUESDAY
The day after Christmas will likely be the transition day from this quiet stretch back to more unsettled weather. Tuesday is generally looking dry, but cloudy at this time. Our next storm system is looking to approach sometime Tuesday night to Wednesday. It is looking to remain mild during Tuesday, with highs similar to Christmas.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
While the exact timing still needs to be worked out, it's looking likely this storm system will impact New England Wednesday or Wednesday night. This storm does look like it will take an inland track, and with mild air in place ahead of the storm, this is looking like a mainly rain event for New England.
The exact timing and track will determine precipitation, so we'll need to keep watching the trends at this point. At this point, models vary heavily in regards to the system's strength. There will be a chance for wrap-around snow showers in the mountains on the back end, but these details need time to get ironed out.
What the Euro, GFS & CMC are showing for Wednesday afternoon:
Thursday will likely remain unsettled, with continued showers, both rain and snow. Depending on how everything shakes out, Friday will likely see some drying out for southern and central New England along with a cooling trend. Some snow showers may linger in the mountains.
CMC showing the potential for wrap-around snow showers Thursday on the back end of the system:
NEW YEAR'S WEATHER OUTLOOK
The initial signals for New Year's weekend shows the storm mentioned above exiting by the weekend. This would help set up drier weather. GraphCast does show a system passing to the south of New England on New Year's Eve. There will likely be a cool down after the storm exits, but in this case, a cool down may be a return to more average temperatures. Right now, it looks like the weekend may start cooler with a gradual warming trend through New Year's day. Of course, this is an early look ahead, these are just the general signals right now.
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