A widespread soaking of rain last night produced 1-3 inch rain amounts. New England has avoided the worst potential flooding impacts as 4-5 inch amounts failed to occur overnight. Still, twenty-four rivers across New England are at or expected to reach minor flood stage. This includes three rivers expected to reach moderate flood stage. These rivers are the Pawtuxet River at Cranston, RI; Wood River at Hope Valley, RI and Connecticut River at Middle Haddam, CT.
River gauges at or expected to reach flood stage as of 8:45am:
The heaviest of the rain has shifted offshore, but showers (snow showers for eastern Maine) will persist through much of the day today as low pressure hangs offshore. Rainfall will gradually end from west to east through this afternoon and evening. There will be a stiff breeze throughout today, so it will be cool, raw and damp day. A wind advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands.
Expected weather around midday today:
Temperatures Thursday will be generally cooler than this past week, but that really just means closer to average. Friday will be a much nicer day, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. The temperature spread on Friday will be very spring-like with western areas reaching for the 50s amid sunshine while eastern areas will remain under a chilly northeast flow off the ocean, keeping things cooler.
Saturday will be another quiet and dry day, but clouds will be thickening ahead of our next system. This system will involve a primary low tracking to the north of New England with a secondary low forming near southern New England. As usual, the track of the secondary low along with how fast it can strengthen will determine impacts to New England.
As of now, it appears that the secondary low will take a more inland track, well inside the benchmark. This increases the likelihood of this storm being another soaking rain event for southern New England and the lower elevations of northern New England as mild air gets pulled into New England. The higher elevations of northern New England are looking at the prospect of several inches of snow.
This storm could be a situation where many areas of New England begin as snow, but the rain/snow line inches northward as Saturday night wears on. The strength of the secondary low will play into this potential. The speed at which it strengthens will determine how long some areas stay with snowfall.
Euro showing potential weather Sunday morning. This is certainly NOT locked in yet:
Should the storm rapidly strengthen, it could result in a ski-country snowstorm with signals showing potentially 6+ inches of snow for the mountains (mainly above 2,000 feet). As of now, the White Mountains appear to be the most likely area to see amounts this high. Overall, this is looking like a true spring storm with elevation playing a large role in snowfall.
Probability of snow accumulating at least 2 inches by Sunday morning:
Areas that see mainly rain will have the chance to see more soaking rainfall with another widespread inch of rain. This may renew some minor flooding concerns as rivers are already running high after this wet week. How much rain may fall and where the heaviest rain will set up remains to be seen.
Very high astronomical tides are likely this weekend. Add in a deepening low pressure system, and there is a risk of coastal flooding. As usual, exact timing and intensity of the strongest winds will determine the extent of this threat. The Sunday morning high tide is looking to be the highest one at the moment.
It will likely turn briefly cooler after the storm, but it will dry out with a more prolonged break in storm systems to start next week. Generally above average temperatures look to continue next week (again, after a cool down post-storm). Long term signals are pointing toward a cooler second half of March.
