It's no secret New England has been stuck in a generally dreary and wet pattern for the better part of two weeks now. This pattern will continue for a couple more days before a shift occurs, allowing New England to get into more heat and higher humidity in time for the official start of summer.
New England is looking to once again enter a Rex Block. This type of block occurs when an area of high pressure resides just north of an area of low pressure. This set up allows warmer and drier conditions in the northern area with cooler and unsettled weather in the southern area. With the high pressure setting up shop in New England, this puts the region on the "good" side. This block was with us over Memorial Weekend.
In Saturday's post, I wrote that northern New England had a higher chance of heating well above average than southern New England, but that southern New England would likely get in on the heat. Now, on Monday, it looks like northern New England will be heating more than southern New England.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
All of this begins to set up on Wednesday. This Wednesday (the summer solstice) looks to be the transition day between the previous weather pattern and the next one. There will likely be a pretty stark contrast between eastern and western New England. An onshore wind will keep eastern areas cooler while western areas will be able to warm. Areas closer to the coast may struggle to break out of the 60s while areas away from the coast may shoot well into the 70s.
Thursday is when the entire region will feel the effects of our new pattern. Much of Maine is looking at highs in the upper 80s on Thursday and Friday. The rest of northern New England as well as much of southern New England looks to stay in the low 80s. Some isolated areas of southern New England may not break out of the 70s on Thursday. Humidity will be increasing each day as the now southerly wind brings southern dew points this way.
Overall, temperatures have trended down. Widespread 90s are no longer looking likely anywhere in New England. Not even northern Maine is looking at 90s anywhere.
This pattern also lends itself to drier weather. Much of the second half of the work week will be dry, a big change from the region's widespread daily rain and thunderstorm chances. Chances for storms re-enter the picture over the weekend, more on that later.
Thursday and Friday will likely be mirror images of each other..with one difference. Friday is when dew points will likely reach the 60s. This is the point where the humidity becomes noticeable. The dew points continue to tick up through the weekend.
WEEKEND
By the weekend, it looks like the area of high pressure will slide southeastward, offshore of New England. As of right now, it appears that the weekend will remain warm as the high is still nearby, but not quite as warm as Thursday and Friday. With the high pressure loosening its grip, it will allow the storm system that was suppressed to our south to begin to come northward.
Being Monday, this forecast has room to change (especially since models tend to have difficulty deciphering what blocking patterns will do in the longer term), but right now it looks like the moisture from the southern storm system combined with high dew points will lead to widespread thunderstorms over the weekend. The exact timing of the storms is very much up in the air, but Sunday appears to be the stormier day.
Euro model showing thunderstorms popping Sunday afternoon:
Being scattered thunderstorms, the weekend does not appear to be a washout at this time. It will be one of those weekends to keep an eye on the sky for potential thunderstorms and downpours.
On Sunday, a cold front will likely approach the region from the north. This will help create storms and bring an end to our most recent bout of summer-like weather. Early indications show a return to cooler weather behind this front.
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