New England's New Year's Day storm has entered the Gulf of Maine. The storm will continue to strengthen and slow down as it moves northeast. By Thursday morning, the storm will be sitting just to the northeast of Maine, where it will continue to pinwheel snow into the higher terrain and eastern Maine through Thursday night. This will add several inches of snow accumulation to the mountains as well as create a very windy day for all of New England on Thursday.
For the rest of Wednesday, widespread rain and snow will continue through the afternoon across Maine. The rest of New England will see much more isolated activity this afternoon before precipitation starts to pick back up this evening and into the overnight for all of the higher terrain. Lower elevation areas may see a few rain showers this evening as the cyclonic flow picks back up.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today (1st image) and later this evening (2nd image):
With the system nearly stalling out to the north of Maine Thursday into Friday, it will cause a strong cyclonic flow to persist. Add a deep layer of moisture to the atmosphere and a highly saturated snow growth zone (the layer of the atmosphere where snow forms, usually where temperatures are between 0 and 10°), and the recipe is there for very persistent upslope snow showers to pile up in the mountains. Northern Maine will also see several inches of additional accumulation given their proximity to the intensifying storm itself.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around sunrise Thursday:
The persistent upslope snow showers will gradually wind down through the day Thursday with snow hanging on the longest across the northern Green Mountains and northern Maine. An additional 2-6 inches of snow will be possible across the northern third of New England as well as the Green Mountains and Berkshires. The northern Greens could see upwards of 8-12 inches of snowfall through Friday morning. All of this snow will be elevation dependent, with valleys coming away with much less.
Below: Probability of at least 4 inches of snow through Friday afternoon:
The other main weather story heading into Thursday will be the increasingly strong winds. Widespread gusts of 40-50mph will be likely across most of New England. There remains a chance for gusts of 50-60mph across the higher terrain of western New England, particularly the Berkshires and southern Greens. Areas that see a light and fluffy snow through Thursday will likely experience blowing and drifting snow, resulting in low visibilities, mainly for the Green Mountains.
All this wind will come mainly thanks to a very tight pressure gradient. With the strengthening storm system stalling out to the northeast of Maine and an expanding high pressure system over the Tennessee Valley, New England will be caught in the middle. The pressure difference between these two systems will be about 50mb (low pressure around 980mb and high pressure around 1,030mb).
A low-level jet with winds of about 60-70mph will also aid in gusts as a lack of an inversion will allow for stronger gusts to mix to the surface. Naturally, not all of that 60-70mph winds at elevation will make it to the surface, but with efficient and deep layer mixing, it will support gusts of 45+mph at the surface.
This wind will be ushering in a much colder air mass for New England, bringing the region back to its January reality. Starting this weekend, widespread highs in the 20s north to low 30s south will be likely for New England with overnight lows back into the single digits north to teens south.
This weekend will likely be the beginning of a prolonged stretch of cold weather. The first half of January continues to look like it will be a cold for the eastern half of the United States. Currently, the core of the coldest air (relative to average) is poised to move south of New England, but the entire east coast will be susceptible to cold air/Arctic intrusions heading into next week.
Below: 8-14 day temperature outlook, which currently covers January 8-14. It's rather rare to see this kind of confidence in the 8-14 day outlook with the entire southeast looking at an 80-100% chance of below average temperatures. Despite the slightly lower chance in New England, it will be getting and staying cold this month for us:
As for future snow, a storm will be driving across the country late this week and into the weekend. The storm will reach the east coast by early next week. At this point, it looks like the push of cold air will be strong enough that it suppresses the storm to the south of New England. Guidance has continued the trend of the storm developing well offshore and too far south for impacts in New England outside of a glancing blow for southern New England.
With that said, there is still time for the storm trend northward. Some solutions are still holding onto a more northern track, so we're not writing off this storm just yet for New England. Should a more northerly trend occur, it would be southern New England with the best chance to see snowfall. Chances for a snowstorm from this system in northern New England are very low.
Below: Current likelihood of minor winter weather impacts early next week, showing a low chance of a glancing blow for southern New England:
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