Pretty calm weather is in store for New England over the next several days, especially by late-January standards. As we enter the peak of snowstorm season for the region (late January to about mid-March), all looks pretty quiet, at least for the time being, as zonal flow generally sets up for this weekend and into the start of next week. Zonal flow is synonymous with quieter, low impact weather and seasonable temperatures.
With that said, the weather won't be completely quiet and dry for everyone in New England through mid-week. A series of northern stream systems will cross northern New England, bringing periods of snow showers. Overall, this will be a repetitive pattern for New England over the next week or so. These disturbances will be weak and moisture-starved. First off, a cold front will cross New England Friday, leading to a step back in temperatures on Saturday. This will be a dry passage for most.
None of these upcoming systems are looking to produce much by way of precipitation for New England. It's best to say that it will be mainly dry and calm during this time with periods of scattered snow showers popping up, mainly across the north. The periods where snow shower activity could become the most widespread will likely be in the Sunday and Tuesday time frames. For Sunday, scattered snow showers will break out along the weak system's fronts, mainly in northern New England, but spot snow showers can't be ruled out anywhere.
Clipper-related snow showers will be confined to far northern New England on Monday. Some heavier snow showers will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across northern Maine. A stronger clipper will move to the north of New England Monday night into Tuesday. As it does so, it will drag an Arctic cold front across the region Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
This clipper appears to have more instability and lift with it, bringing the potential for a quick hit of some snow for the northern tier of New England. The system will drag a cold front across the region, which could provide a focus for a line of snow showers or squalls across New England.
Below: Euro showing potential weather on Tuesday, showing a line of snow showers and possibly squalls along a cold front:
One final clipper may dive into New England later Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system may form and ride along the cold front. Guidance has been very inconsistent with this feature and operational models can't be trusted with timing or location of this feature given the parade of clippers coming before it. Should it take a favorable track along the cold front, it could be the next best chance for a more widespread period of light snow. Probabilities don't favor much coming out of it, but it's worth watching the trends.
Below: Current probability of winter weather impacts Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon:
Overall, the next several days continue to look mainly dry, especially for southern and central New England. Northern New England will likely see periods of light snow showers, amounting to little, if anything. The lack of more powerful and organized storm systems for the region can be attributed to the zonal flow among the southern stream.
Below: Current five-day precipitation forecast:
This flow will generally keep coastal storm tracks to the south of New England. These southern systems are the moisture-rich ones. This supports the main moisture source for New England to be from the Pacific rather than the Gulf. So by the time it reaches New England, there is little left with which to work.
Northern stream systems, which will be moving through New England during this time, are typically more moisture-starved and, remaining separated from southern stream systems, can struggle to produce much precipitation. These systems will be coming through New England due to a weak trough within the northern stream, keeping it more active.
Below: Jet stream map early next week, showing the zonal southern stream and northern streams remaining separate:
As far as temperatures go, New England will warm back to near average today. A cold front will drop through New England this afternoon and evening, setting temperatures back a notch for Saturday. Near to slightly above normal reading will be likely through Tuesday. How temperatures pan out for Tuesday across northern areas will depend on the timing of the Arctic front discussed above.
The next blast of cold air will enter the picture after that cold front crosses the region. Trends have been steadily heading in a colder direction for this Arctic blast. As of now, it may be on par with the Arctic blast that is currently exiting the region, though exact temperatures remain uncertain at this point.
Below: Euro showing temperature departure from average late next week:
The next true shot at a more organized and widespread storm system for New England will likely come around next weekend. Being over a week out, any kind of details (track, timing, precipitation type, intensity, etc.) are impossible to try to go into right now.
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