New England is in for a very nice week, except for a mid-week storm that could bring parts of the region steady rain. A system, along with its fronts, will interact with tropical moisture from (the distant) Hurricane Franklin. This could produce locally steady downpours for southern and coastal New England.
TUESDAY
Most of New England will be dry, but cloudy, for much of Tuesday. The northern tier of the region could see lingering morning showers from a weal disturbance passing through overnight Monday to Tuesday. The main storm system will likely lift into southern New England during the day Tuesday.
It currently looks like the steadiest of the rain will be confined to the South Shore, Cape Cod and the Islands during the afternoon. Despite this, showers will be possible across all of southern New England Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon. There could also be afternoon showers across northern Maine from a front to the north of New England.
Once we get to the overnight hours, the rain will have the chance to spread through much of New England. The Tuesday night rain will likely be scattered in nature, so rainfall will not be consistent all night long. Generally, the steadiest rain chances will be in southern and coastal New England.
WEDNESDAY
There remains a decent amount of uncertainty about the exact timing of the rain. These are current trends. As stated above, there will likely be scattered rainfall Tuesday night. There may be a lull in rain before the bulk of the precipitation moves through Wednesday morning. This is when the greatest chance for locally heavy downpours will be.
Pretty much all of New England is in play for scattered steady rain in the morning as a cold front is dragged across the region. The one exception will be Vermont, who will likely see lighter showers than the rest of the region.
GFS showing steady rain across much of New England Wednesday morning, you can see Franklin at the bottom right:
A big question is when the rain will begin to shut down. It looks like the heaviest of the rain will pull away by Wednesday afternoon, but don't count on dry weather for the second half of the day. While the afternoon will likely see dry times, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely hang around.
Right now, it looks like the greatest chance for steady rainfall Wednesday morning will be across interior southern New England in a reversal from Tuesday afternoon, where the south coast saw the best chance for steady rain. In northern New England, the highest chances for the steadiest rain will be closer to the coast.
By Wednesday evening, a cold front will have pushed all the rain through and very quiet weather looks to set up for the rest of the week. This front will also aid in keeping Tropical Storm Idalia (now forecast to strike Florida as a category three hurricane) well to New England's south.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS
When all is said and done, this is not looking like a major rain maker at this time. Southern New England and along the northern New England coastline is looking at the highest chance for the most rain, with probabilities of seeing at least one inch around 50%. Where the steadiest rain falls and how much will fall will need to be ironed out over the next 24 hours.
A big question for rainfall amounts, particularly in northern New England, is where exactly the heaviest rain comes together. If the ingredients come together over the ocean rather than over land, then rainfall will be limited. This is why areas closer to the coast stand the best chance of seeing steadier rain in northern areas.
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