New England has some very nice weather on the way, but first, a mid-week storm has to rumble through the region. A system, along with its fronts, will interact with tropical moisture from (the distant) Hurricane Franklin. This could produce locally steady downpours across New England.
TUESDAY
It appears there will be two distinct waves of precipitation.The first will come through this afternoon and evening. This round will be very spotty, many areas may stay dry during this time. The showers themselves will also be light. This round will primarily affect southern New England (mainly the eastern half of southern New England) and the northern third of New England. The area sandwiched in between southern New England and the northern third will likely stay dry, but clouds will increase in the afternoon and a stray shower is possible everywhere.
Heading into Tuesday night, the main storm system begins to move in. This is the northern one on the "general setup" above. The southern system will clear the area first. A plume of steady rain will likely begin to move through New England generally from southwest to northeast late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
WEDNESDAY
Wednesday is looking to be a washout for most of New England. The heaviest of the rain continues to look like it will fall in the morning hours. This is when most of the rain from this event will fall and scattered torrential downpours will be possible. Rainfall rates will not be consistent all night and morning long. Sometimes it will be drizzling, other times it will be a downpour.
Canadian model showing the bulk of the downpours moving through around mid-morning. These downpours are generally moving northeast:
As per usual, once the area of low pressure moves through, its cold front will be dragged across the region, allowing for scattered (generally) lighter rain to continue all day long. There could also be scattered thunderstorms Wednesday as well across New England.
HRRR showing scattered showers (and possibly isolated thunderstorms) continuing in the afternoon. You can also see the storm clearing in western areas, the clouds may begin to break in the afternoon between these scattered showers:
Yesterday, there was some uncertainty over whether or not the heaviest rain would fall over the ocean in northern New England, or if it would set up a bit further west, over land. Latest model trends have the rain setting up over land, so it does look like heavy rain will fall over northern New England.
Just how far inland the soaking rains get is still a bit of a question mark. Areas closer to the coast are still looking at the most rainfall in northern New England. Coastal Maine is where conditions are most primed for downpours.
ICON model the heavier rain pushing inland into Maine late Wednesday morning:
RAINFALL AMOUNTS
This doesn't appear to be a big rain maker when compared to many of our other storms this summer. It looks like the most rain will fall in a strip from northern Massachusetts through coastal northern New England. 1-2 inches of rain could fall in these areas with locally higher amounts where the downpours set up. This storm will be moving quickly, which will help limit rainfall totals. There could be partly cloudy skies by the afternoon in western New England.
The good news is that recent stretches of drier weather have allowed the soils to recover from all the rain we've had this season. This has increased the amount of rain needed for flash flooding to occur. Despite this, there could be some isolated flash flooding, particularly in Downeast Maine.
BEYOND
There's not too much to say about New England's weather after this storm. High pressure will grasp the region, and looks to hang on for multiple days. There's a lot of dry weather, sun and pleasant temperatures for the rest of this week and into the weekend. After a generally cooler last couple weeks, New England's "second summer" may be on the way with growing signals in heat returning for the start of September.
TRACKING THE TROPICS
As mentioned earlier, Hurricane Franklin will inject some tropical moisture into Wednesday's storm. The hurricane will also create large-breaking waves along the south coast and Maine coasts, along with strong rip currents. Tides will be astronomically high on Wednesday, and some splashover will be possible. The hurricane itself will remain well offshore.
In the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Idalia is looking to make landfall in the "big bend" of Florida as a major category three hurricane. 3-6 inches of rain is expected and storm surge up to 12 feet is possible. After the hurricane exits Florida, it will need to be watched again as it moves into the open Atlantic Ocean. There are some models have the system swing back in a southward direction. Exactly where the storm goes this weekend is a massive question mark.
An area of interest in the middle of the Atlantic currently has a 50% chance to develop. Whether or not this system is able to develop is inconsequential as the storm will very likely stay well away from any landmasses. Another tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa as well, this system will need to be watched as it has a 50% chance of developing in the next week.
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