High pressure off New England's coast will continue to yield dry conditions for the region, but also provide a moist easterly flow, which will also yield continued cooler temperatures in the east along with some clouds. This high pressure will also slow an approaching cold front to a crawl on Sunday, delaying the start time of showers.
While the front will begin pushing toward the northeast overnight tonight into Sunday, showers will hold off for much of New England until Sunday afternoon and evening. Scattered showers will likely break out in western New England in the morning before gradually pushing eastward. The showers will fill in and will gradually become more numerous as the day goes on and turns to Sunday night.
FV3 showing expected weather around midday Sunday (1st image) and Sunday evening (2nd image):
The steadiest of the rain will come from Sunday evening through the first half of Sunday night for most. Rain will wrap up for most by sunrise Monday, although some lingering showers will be possible across the northern tier of New England and much of Maine through the morning. Following recent trends, total rainfall will remain on the lighter side, with most seeing a quarter inch or less. Some areas in western New England may see up to a half an inch.
The air mass behind the cold front isn't much cooler, but it is much drier. This is key when looking at the region's next warm-up, slated for Monday afternoon. Once the front passes, a fresh westerly flow will set up, which will allow a warmer air mass aloft into the region. The drier weather will allow clouds to begin to break up in the afternoon.
The timing of when clouds will break up will play a large role in temperatures. As of now, widespread upper 60s to low 70s are likely for much of New England away from the immediate coast and the northern third of the region. If the clouds are stubborn and hang around, it will end up cooler in the afternoon.
Tuesday is looking increasingly likely to be the warmest day of the week away from the coast (a sea breeze on Tuesday will keep the coast cooler once again) for many. The air mass overhead will not be quite as warm, but the skies will likely be sunnier. Along with the sea breeze keeping things cooler at the coast, a backdoor cold front is looking to drop into northern Maine on Tuesday, keeping things cooler there as well.
850mb (around 5,000 feet above sea level) temperature departure from average from Sunday night through early Wednesday morning. You can see a warm air mass overhead (although not as warm on Tuesday. You can also see the backdoor cold front beginning to drop into the north on Tuesday:
Yesterday, we wrote an article focused on the pitfalls of spring temperatures in New England, and early next week will see some of them on display with sea breezes, clouds and backdoor cold fronts, so we'll see how things end up warming up.
After this brief, two day warm-up, we'll cool things back off for the rest of the week as a frontal boundary looks to stall south of New England. Waves of low pressure may ride this front, bringing a lot of clouds and periodic showers for much of the remainder of the week, along with cooler temperatures.
