The surface low pressure system has moved across southwest New England and has settled over eastern New York, where it will remain for the bulk of the day today. As expected, a dry slot has worked into much of New England. This dry slot may not be completely dry as light, isolated showers could still pop up within it. The exception to this dry slot is northern and eastern Maine, where the initial band of rain will finally move through during the day today along the system's decaying occluded front. Far western areas may also see unsettled weather persist.
Thankfully, Thursday's rainfall amounts generally lived up to expectations for southern and central New England. Dry air really limited the amount of rainfall across the northern tier of New England as it made the northward advancement of rain very difficult. A general half an inch to inch and a half of rain has fallen across southern and central areas.
Below: Observed rainfall over the last 24 hours:
Breaks of sunshine (and even mainly sunny skies) will be possible throughout the day across much of New England with only isolated shower chances through the afternoon. The exceptions to this will be northern and eastern Maine and far northern New Hampshire, as it will take much of the day for the initial band of rain to move through the area. The other exception will be far western Massachusetts and Connecticut, where unsettled weather may persist due to their close proximity to the center of the low itself.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather early this afternoon:
The most finicky part of this overall system continues to be the development and track of a secondary disturbance off the New England coast later Friday into the overnight hours. This secondary low is expected to move northeast well offshore of New England. Trends over the last 24 hours have pushed the system farther offshore. There remains some uncertainty in just how much of this system's rainfall will push onshore and how far inland it can push.
Areas farther east have the better chance of seeing widespread showers once again later today with more scattered activity farther west. It looks like precipitation from this low will break out across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island in the evening before pushing north and west into the overnight hours. Another quarter to half inch of rain will be possible across eastern areas through tonight with lesser amounts farther west.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather this evening (1st image) and overnight tonight (2nd image):
During the overnight hours tonight into Saturday morning, the trough complex will begin to push eastward. The primary low pressure system over New York will dive southeast and slowly travel to the south of New England while the new secondary system pinwheels around it in the Gulf of Maine. This will support continued shower chances into Friday night and Saturday. Everything will continue to push eastward through Saturday, though there are questions as to how quickly it can push east in this blocking pattern.
Precipitation will generally begin to wind down from southwest to northeast through the afternoon on Saturday. As colder air is drawn into the system on a northerly flow on the backside, snow levels may once again drop to around 1,000 feet with potential snow showers occurring in the Berkshires, Greens and Whites and potential mixing in the Monadnocks and Worcester Hills. Accumulations below 1,500 feet will continue to be hard to come by, however.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around midday Saturday:
Heading into Saturday evening and night, the weather across much of Maine will likely become more showery in nature while very isolated showers are possible everywhere else in New England. Continued moisture is currently favored to wrap around the system across northern Maine and northern New Hampshire through the night into Sunday morning. With colder air filtering in, rain showers will likely flip to snow showers across this area. Minor accumulations across the northern woods near the Canadian border will be possible.
Below: Probability of at least 2 inches of snow from Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon:
How quickly the unsettled weather shuts down will come down to how quickly the storm complex can begin to pull away. In a blocking pattern, this may happen more slowly than initially anticipated. Saturday has already trended wetter over the past 36 hours. As of now, precipitation on Sunday is appearing to be favored for upslope rain and snow showers in the mountains while southern and central New England dry out.
Outside of the precipitation chances, the weekend will be very blustery on the backside of the system. A chilly northwest breeze with gusts of 25-35mph region-wide. The highest gusts will likely be across eastern areas with lesser gusts farther west. This will be a chilly northwest wind. The question on the extent of the breeze will be how much can mix down to the surface.
Below: GFS showing potential wind gusts around midday Sunday:
After a (very) brief break, New England's active pattern will continue into Thanksgiving week. A quick frontal system looks to drive through New England on Monday night into Tuesday, bringing a quick shot at some rain and elevation snow showers. This continues to look like a minor system with limited precipitation totals.
This frontal system will usher in a much colder air mass with chilly days heading toward Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving itself will be a chilly day. Thursday is a bit uncertain as a system will be traversing the country next week. This system is looking to pass New England at the end of next week. It's possible this system will bring precipitation to New England as early as the afternoon or evening of Thanksgiving. A majority of guidance still points toward the bulk of this system arriving for Friday.
With the system passing by earlier in the week advecting a colder air mass into New England for the remainder of the week. This could set up a situation with wintry precipitation, especially for the interior of New England. The track and timing (and track) of the system will determine who gets what (rain vs snow vs sleet vs etc.) and how much. That's if the system tracks close enough to bring precipitation to New England. Whether the system hits New England right on or delivers just a glancing blow remains to be seen.
Overall, Thanksgiving week is looking rather unsettled with Monday and Wednesday as the best chances for dry weather all day region-wide. The timing of that storm system late in the week will drive the weather for Thursday through the weekend. That timing remains all over the place, so confidence does drop in the forecast starting on Thanksgiving itself. We published a full Thanksgiving week weather outlook yesterday evening and can be seen here.
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