As of Wednesday morning, an upper-level low continues to rotate around the Great Lakes. As the system's fronts continue to move east-northeast toward the northeast, a surface low will form around the Mid-Atlantic and strengthen. Once this happens, a band of rain moving northeast will fill in and become steadier. The surface low will become the primary low as it continues to rotate through New England, likely landing in western New England or eastern New York by Friday. The storm system will remain with New England through the weekend.
The band of rain will first arrive in Connecticut and western Massachusetts likely before sunrise Thursday. This band of rain, which will be steady and likely include periods of heavier rain, will continue to push north and east through the morning. By mid to late afternoon, rain should have overspread much of New England outside of Maine. A wedge of dry air between this system and a departing system well to the east will keep the precipitation generally away from the eastern two thirds of Maine on Thursday, but the rain will arrive eventually.
Below: GFS showing potential weather around sunrise Thursday (1st image) and mid-afternoon Thursday (2nd image):
Thursday will generally have a washout feel for much of New England (again, outside of eastern Maine). With that said, it won't be raining at the same intensity all day long. Sometimes, it may reduce to just some light showers or drizzle, especially in southern New England in the afternoon, when a "dry" slot may punch into the area. Steady rain may be slow to start across northern Vermont and New Hampshire as well.
Rain and scattered showers will continue to rotate through New England Thursday evening and into the night as the low pressure system rotates northward and eventually northwestward, crossing over western New England. Rain will continue to slowly encroach into Maine through Thursday night. By Friday morning, colder air will wrap around the system, leading to a changeover to a mix or snow showers in the higher terrain. Snowfall has trended toward less of an impact for New England, which will be discussed later.
Below: GFS showing potential weather Thursday evening (1st image) and Friday morning (2nd image):
By Friday, much of New England will be within a dry slot. This dry slot won't be completely dry as scattered, lighter showers continue to rotate around the low pressure system, which will likely settle somewhere near western New England or eastern New York. The system's occluded front will push into Maine during the day, which will finally spread the steadier rain through Maine for Thursday night and Friday. Vermont will likely be the driest on Friday.
A secondary disturbance may rotate around the border of the low pressure system later Friday and into Friday night. This could set off a secondary round of steadier, more widespread rain later in the day Friday and into the overnight hours. As of now, this secondary system is looking to track well offshore, but there's a wide range in exactly where it will land and if it is able to spread its precipitation over land or if it remains over the ocean. The best chance of this secondary round of rain will be across eastern areas.
Below: GFS showing potential weather Friday evening. You can see the secondary disturbance well offshore. There is a wide range in where this system's rainfall will end up:
The storm has trended a bit wetter in regards to total rainfall. The region is still looking at a widespread half inch to inch and a half of rainfall. The least amount of rain through Friday will likely be across northern Maine, where dry air will eat away at precipitation for a while at the beginning. Rainfall amounts will likely vary from area to area as scattered downpours may enhance totals in some areas. It wouldn't be surprising to see some two inch reports out there in some places.
This will be a much-welcomed rain in what has been one of the driest falls on record for portions of New England. Much of New England is running several inches below average for rainfall this season, so this won't end the drought that has developed, but it will start to chip away at it. Worcester is running nearly 10 inches below average for rainfall since September 1st. The rain will also significantly ease this extended and hyper-active brush fire season as well. Overall, this rainfall will be completely beneficial.
Additional rain will be possible on Saturday, especially across Maine. Factoring in Saturday's rainfall may put northern Maine up over an inch as well. Additional rainfall across Maine on Saturday could very well be another quarter to half an inch. Elsewhere, Saturday precipitation will likely be elevation based with the mountains seeing the most continued showers. Limited showers will be possible anywhere in New England on Saturday.
The overall threat of snow has decreased for New England. The highest snow potential was always going to be on the colder backside (west) of the system. With the track of the system over western New England and into New York, it will keep the highest snowfall chances to the west of New England. Currently, winter storm watches and winter weather advisories are in effect for portions of New York and Pennsylvania (Catskills and Poconos mountains).
Below: Chances of snow accumulating at least 2 inches by Saturday morning:
Snow levels may still drop to as low as 1,500 feet by Friday morning in New England, but little to no accumulations are expected outside of the mountains. The big issue for New England is that when snow levels drop, precipitation rates will also dwindle, leading to only light snow or mixing showers. The chance for snow in the mountains will continue into Saturday. Several inches of mountain snow is possible through the weekend. Northern Maine could see a transition to snow showers Saturday night.
One last point to mention with this storm will be blustery winds. Gusts of 25 to 35mph will be possible across New England through the end of the week. Winds are generally expected to stay below impactful levels, but it will be noticeable and add to the stormy and raw feel Thursday and Friday.
The storm finally clears out by early next week, but the new weather pattern stays active. The next system may approach around Tuesday of next week as a frontal system emerges from the Great Lakes. Overall, a zonal flow during this time will keep periods of active weather around into Thanksgiving week. How this translates among what days have higher precipitation chances remains to be seen.
Below: Weather map for Tuesday (November 26):
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