So far this winter, New England has seen but one major winter storm. This storm came in mid December and brought up to two feet of snow to parts of northern New England. Southern New England has yet to have a major, or even a moderate sized snowstorm this year. That fact will not change this week, as our next storm will be mild once again.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS
The primary impact from this storm will be a heavy, soaking rain. The chances of this storm being snow has dropped tremendously since last Friday, when I had southern New England at a 35% chance of seeing snow. Southern New England now has just a 5% chance of snowfall as of Monday night.
Rainfall looks to be steady, if heavy at times. A widespread half an inch to a full inch in places. Flooding will likely be minimal, especially considering there will be no snow melt to add to the runoff.
Winds will be gusty at times, especially near the coast, but winds should remain well below the threshold for any kind of damage. Winds will be coming from the south, which will keep temps mild, so it will not be too cold of a rain.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TIMING
This will be a long duration storm. Clouds will arrive on Thursday morning with showers starting up in the afternoon. The rain and wind will start picking up as Thursday evening transitions to Thursday night. The bulk of the rain and gusts will come throughout the day Friday. Friday looks to be a total washout. The storm will take a LONG time to wind down with clouds and showers continuing through Saturday night.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IMPACTS
It looks like rain will be the primary precipitation type across northern New England as well. The storm does look to start as snow showers on Thursday with a mix transitioning to rain overnight Thursday into Friday. As always, elevation will play a role in snowfall at the start. The higher the elevation, the longer it will take to mix and transition to rain.
The climax of the storm looks to be rainfall across the region. A widespread half an inch to a full inch of rain is possible, with the most rain occurring in Maine. After the bulk of precipitation comes through, the storm could then end as some snow as well. So, northern New England is looking at snow at the start, then mixing and finally turning to rain at the storm's height. The storm may then end as snow as it winds down.
Total snowfall will be elevation based, with several inches possible across the White Mountains and into Maine. Snow looks to accumulate at the beginning of the storm with some more possible at the end as a cold front passes through the region.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TIMING
Thursday: Snow showers
Thursday night: Snow and mix transitioning to rain
Friday: Rain, washout likely
Friday night: Rain mixing with snow across VT and NH, remaining rain in ME
Saturday: Snow showers in VT and NH, rain in ME
Saturday night: Snow showers continue in NH, transition from rain to snow in ME
Sunday: Snow showers winding down in the morning
With a few days to go before this storm, stick with NESC this week for continuing coverage of this storm and future storms.
