New England is currently in a "dirty ridge" type setup. A dirty ridge occurs when precipitation undercuts the ridge. Normally, ridging brings clear and calm weather. In this case, the ridge is not strong enough to keep the clouds and precipitation away completely. So while it will be above average, it won't be bright, sunny and calm the entire time. This setup will also prevent high temperatures from reaching their full potential.
With low pressure lingering to the east of New England causing a chilly northeast flow, our region generally won't get into the level of warm-up that has come to the rest of the northeast and Great Lakes region, where some areas could see temperatures shoot well into the 60s and perhaps head toward 70°. With this setup, areas of New England away from the coast will have an easier path to warming up.
On Sunday, areas that see breaks in the sun could potentially reach into the upper 50s. Areas that stay generally socked in will be held to the mid 40s to low 50s. Monday will be more of the same.
Temperature departure from average on Monday afternoon, showing mild conditions in New England with warmer conditions to our west:
The ridge begins to break down on Tuesday, opening the door further for low pressure to slide through the region. There will be three rounds of precipitation to watch this upcoming week. The first will slide through Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. This will be a weak system sliding through, with a bulk of the precipitation likely falling during the nighttime hours, similar to Saturday night.
Euro showing potential Tuesday evening:
Wednesday will likely remain cloudy with isolated showers around. This is also when forecast confidence begins to dwindle to a point, which is expected in this kind of setup. We know there will be more systems and unsettled weather, but timing and precipitation type remains a bit of a question.
Flow at the surface will switch from more easterly to more westerly. This should allow Wednesday to be the warmest day of the week for most as that warmer air that's sitting to our west will be able to spread into New England.
On Wednesday, a frontal boundary will likely approach New England. At the same time, energy from the southern stream will work up the coast and likely intensify as it approaches New England. This could result in a soaking rain event for southern and central New England. Depending on how everything sets up, the heaviest precipitation may end up just offshore. We'll need to keep watching the trends.
While the bulk of this storm will be rain initially, cooler air could filter into New England as an area of high pressure builds to the north. This may allow for a switch to a mix or wet snow, most likely across the higher terrain of northern New England. Right now, this system appears to favor coming in on Wednesday afternoon and running through Thursday.
Weather maps for Wednesday morning (1st image) and Thursday morning (2nd image). The first image shows the frontal boundary approach while the second shows the southern stream low pressure south of New England while high pressure builds to the north:
Temperatures should drop down for the rest of the week, but not to a point where it will be cold, just closer to average. Conditions will likely stay generally unsettled heading into next weekend. A double-barrel low may approach New England next weekend, but with the uncertainty with the midweek system, there's no need to try to go into this system right now.
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