After another incredible weekend, New England's next storm is already fast approaching. An area of low pressure is looking to cross through New England, strengthening as it does so. This storm will move southwest to northeast through the region Monday through Tuesday, with potentially heavy rain on the docket.
TODAY
An area of steady rain is lifting through the region as a warm front lifts through the region. Along with the rain, this front will usher in higher humidity, which will aid in producing locally heavy rainfall rates tonight into tomorrow morning.
Radar as of 10am Monday:
The atmosphere will be very favorable for showers to continue to pop all day long. After the bulk of the morning rain moves northeast through the region, scattered downpours and thunderstorms will continue to pop up all afternoon. These will be mainly showers as thunderstorm activity will very likely be limited by cloud cover. Should the clouds be able to break at some point today, there will be more thunderstorms, and a chance for some strong storms in western areas.
Expected weather around mid-afternoon:
TONIGHT
Overnight Monday into Tuesday is when the bulk of the rain is expected to come through the region. Starting Monday night, the atmosphere will become more conducive to producing heavy rainfall. Downpours will become more widespread as they spread from southwest to northeast throughout the night. These downpours will have the capability to produce very heavy rainfall across the region.
The rainfall rate is unlikely to be constant throughout the night. As has been the case with our summer storms this year, sometimes it will just be drizzling while other times it will be a torrential downpour.
Just about the entire region will see rain by early Tuesday morning as the storm continues to spread from west to east. The best chance for the highest amount of rain and most time in heavier rain will be across the higher elevations of northern New England. This is where there is the greatest concern for flash flooding.
Expected weather around 5am Tuesday:
TUESDAY
The center of the storm system will cross New England on Tuesday. Downpours will likely continue for much of the day, although areas west of Maine will see the bulk of the activity wind down after the morning. By the afternoon, the bulk of the steadier rain will be across Maine while scattered downpours and thunderstorms pop up across the rest of the region through the evening.
Expected weather Tuesday afternoon, bulk of the rain across Maine with scattered activity for the rest of the region:
There's a low risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon for southern New England. There are some things working for potent storms, but also some things working against them. There's plenty of moisture for storms to work with in the atmosphere with dew points in the 70s, but a thick cloud cover will limit how much destabilization that can occur. The severe threat will be something to watch, but it is highly unlikely to be a big threat at this time.
The biggest threat for the duration of the whole storm will continue to be flooding. This storm could drop a widespread half an inch to inch and a half of rain across the region. There will likely be locally much higher amounts where the downpours set up and persist Monday night through Tuesday. This doesn't look like a widespread flooding event, but localized flash floods will likely be an issue.
WEDNESDAY
Southern and central New England will likely begin drying out on Wednesday as the storm pushes away. Eastern Maine, along with the White Mountains and northern Vermont, is looking at some lingering showers during the day. Dew points will once again drop off Wednesday after the passage of the cold front.
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