This weekend will be dominated by high pressure for New England. This will lead to a weekend very similar to last weekend with warm temperatures, mainly sunny skies and low humidity. Sea breezes will keep the coast cooler both days. Saturday is looking to be slightly warmer and brighter than Sunday as a sneaky low pressure system moves up the coast.
Sunday will likely see clouds generally increase during the afternoon, though it shouldn't turn completely overcast. This comes as that low pressure system off the east coast gets cut off and pushed northward. This system is weak, compact and unimpactful, so widespread showers will be hard to come by, even when the system makes its closest approach to Cape Cod Monday morning. This low is being forced north (and eventually west, toward New England) by an offshore area of high pressure.
Flow pattern heading into Sunday evening, showing the low being pushed north and west by the offshore high. You can also the weak, compact nature of the low:
Sunday will be a very nice day from beginning to end for pretty much all of New England. A leading band of light, scattered showers may approach Cape Cod and the islands heading into the evening. Whether or not any showers develop over this outer reach of New England will be highly dependent on where the low ends up tracking.
Being cut off, exactly where the low decides to go is tricky to say. Either way, whether it comes close or stays well out to sea, impact will be minimal and showers will be spotty at best. Outside of Cape Cod, a dry day will be in store with at least partial sunshine from sunrise to sunset.
HRRR showing the very leading edge of the system brushing the Cape and Islands Sunday evening:
This low will make its closest pass Monday morning, bringing mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers to eastern New England on Monday. The main impact from this system will be cooler temperatures on Monday. While heat and humidity was initially expected to begin to build early next week, this system will be delaying that from happening until later in the week. Monday will be coolest and cloudiest along the coastal plain with areas well away from the coast seeing brighter and warmer weather.
Euro showing temperature departure from average for Monday afternoon. Those blues will support low to mid 70s. A far cry from highs initially forecast well into the 80s:
Fortunately, we're not in a blocking pattern, so this cut off low won't hang around all week. It will shoot away by Tuesday. With that said, conditions will remain generally unsettled for New England next week as an upper trough moves east through the Great Lakes. While all day washout potential is low, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible in the afternoons and evenings. Wednesday currently looks like the peak of this activity.
Both temperatures and humidity will be trending up after Monday. For much of the week, widespread 80s are likely with dew points well into the 60s by midweek. Clouds and unsettled weather may keep temperatures from reaching their full potential through midweek.
Highs in the 90s are possible for the start of August, but this will be dependent on small-scale factors, which can cool expectations, as we've seen by Monday's drop. The Climate Prediction Center currently has New England with a 70-90% chance of above average temperatures to kick off the new month.
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