Great Stretch of Weather to be Interrupted This Weekend for New England

After several days of beautiful spring weather, the weekend will continue the recent tradition of wet and windy weekends. The nice weather we've had for most of this week will return after the weekend. While the weekend weather won't be ideal, the overall setup remains one that will keep New England's weather low-impact through at least the next week.

On Friday, a (very) weak frontal boundary will remain mostly stationary over northern New England. This boundary will continue to produce increasing clouds over the region, mainly over northern areas. Later in the day, this boundary will begin to slowly lift northward as a warm front. The warm air advection will result in a quick round of showers along the boundary later this afternoon and evening.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather this evening:

On Saturday, a trough that dug into the Great Lakes along this stalled boundary will move eastward and cross northern New England, likely near the Canadian border, through the day. This track will place much of New England within the warm sector of the system, allowing for an abundance of moisture and steady rainfall with pockets of downpours and potentially thunderstorms.

Showers from this system look to enter western New England by sunrise Saturday. Showers will steadily push eastward through the morning, with widespread light to moderate rain falling across all but eastern Maine by midday. By the afternoon, the shield of steadier rain will have likely entered into eastern Maine. By this time, a dry slot may develop across areas farther west. It likely won't become totally dry in the afternoon, but showers may become generally lighter and more scattered.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather late morning Saturday (1st image) and later Saturday afternoon (2nd image):

With New England in the warm sector of the system, dew points will likely rise into the 60s and contribute to some instability. There should be enough for some thunder to develop, though widespread storms aren't expected. The best storm chance will come in the afternoon and evening across western New England as the cold front slides through the region.

Below: FV3 showing the potential for some pop-up thunderstorms later in the day Saturday:

By the time the cold front passes through New England Saturday night, a widespread half inch to inch and a half of rain will likely have fallen. The day may not be a total washout from sunrise to sunset, but there will be more wet hours than dry hours during that time. A coastal front may set up, which could enhance rainfall totals along the coastal plain. The best chance for over an inch of rain will be along Maine's coast, particularly the Midcoast and points east.

This system will have plenty of moisture to work with as it has a connection to high Gulf moisture. This will allow for a period of moderate rainfall with the potential for heavier downpours embedded within it. With a track just to the south of the Canadian border, it puts New England in the zone for heavier and more widespread rainfall as opposed to if the system tracked through Quebec. A southerly low-level jet will direct high moisture into New England and will be overhead Saturday morning into the early afternoon ,which is when the highest rainfall is expected.

Below: Precipitable water values Saturday, showing a stream of moisture from the south:

The system will continue to slowly depart to the east on Sunday. Recent trends have been for a slower and slower departure, which has led to an increase in clouds and shower activity during the day Sunday. While the cold front will clear New England by Saturday night, lingering moisture from the system, which will be sitting in the Gulf of Maine, will likely allow for scattered showers to develop during the day.

These showers will be most numerous across Maine, closer to the low, but all of New England has a chance of at least a spot shower during the day. Outside of Maine, the next best chance for a showery day will be across the higher terrain of northern New England. Outside of the showers, it will be cooler behind the front for all of New England.

Below: CMC showing potential weather Sunday:

Right on cue, this beautiful stretch of weather we've been in will return after this weekend. Warm high pressure builds in for Monday and Tuesday with temperatures in the 60s north and 70s south with plentiful sunshine. New England's next precipitation chance will come around midweek next week with another frontal system. Depending on where the system passes relative to New England and the time of day, it could result in the first real afternoon thunderstorm day of the season. Later next week trends cooler after the passage of a cold front.