Similar to Halloween, New England will be firmly within a warm sector today. A strong ridge centered offshore of the east coast will lead to a very mild west-southwest flow into New England. While temperatures likely won't quite reach the levels of Halloween in many areas, there are indications that highs will overachieve this afternoon and reach daily record high levels in southern and central New England. Many of the record highs for November 6th are very new, having just been set in 2022.
With a more westerly flow, a downsloping effect off the western New England mountains will be favorable for a quick warm-up with wind gusts of 20-40mph this afternoon. On top of this, very dry soils are favorable for warming up quickly, which, in turn, helps the surface air temperature warm up quickly. This allowed temperatures to overachieve yesterday.
Widespread highs in the 70s are likely with a few 80° readings possible in the typical warm spots of southern New England (Connecticut River and Merrimack Valleys). Across the northern third of New England, highs may be limited by more clouds and spotty showers, leading to the potential of more areas getting held to the 60s. Temperatures are currently more likely to top below daily record values, but if some breaks of sun can happen this afternoon, temperatures will be able to overachieve there as well.
Below: Temperature departure from average Wednesday afternoon, showing highs 10-20° above average:
All warm sectors must eventually be followed by a cold front, which will cross into New England this afternoon and push southward through Thursday morning. The front will likely trigger some scattered showers today across the northern tier, but these showers will weaken and fall apart as they move southward with very little (if any) moisture surviving into southern New England.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather early this afternoon:
With very minimal to no showers activity across southern New England, very high fire danger is once again likely. A red flag warning has been issued for the entirety of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island as continued dry weather, low humidity, gusty winds and warm temperatures will combine to create a very favorable environment for the ignition and spread of fire. Hundreds of fires continue to burn across Massachusetts and Connecticut and will continue to do so until a soaking rain comes.
Also like the Halloween frontal system, this cold front won't usher in truly chilly air and temperatures will remain mild on the other side of it for Thursday. The air mass over New England will remain fairly mild, which will help keep temperatures at the surface mild as well for southern and central New England. It will be cooler, closer to seasonal averages, across the northern third of the region.
A secondary cold front will cross New England Friday into Saturday morning. Expansive high pressure will build in behind this front, bringing a northwest flow and a cooling trend for the rest of the week. Dry weather will continue to prevail just about region-wide during this time, though some upslope showers will be possible in the higher terrain with the secondary front.
As far as widespread rain chances go, the system that we've been mentioning over the past couple days will lift north of New England later Sunday into Monday. This remains New England's best chance at widespread showers. With the system passing to New England's north, the question for rainfall will be whether or not a secondary low can form along the system's triple point, which would help get more moisture and forcing for showers across all of New England.
Below: Current weather map for Sunday (November 10):
As of now, this isn't looking to be a cure-all event for the very dry weather and drought conditions across much of New England. A widespread, soaking rain remains the less likely scenario at this point, but any shower activity will be welcome.
Below: Weather Prediction Center 7-day rainfall forecast:
Overall, a general trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern is likely to prevail across the United States with generally above temperatures continuing for New England into next week. The Climate Prediction Center gives New England a 60-80% chance for above average temperatures next week. There is some possibility of some wetter weather next week, starting with the Sunday night to Monday system.
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