A change in pace is coming to New England's weather as stalled frontal boundaries to the north and south of New England are pushed away by a trough of low pressure. This system will pass to the north of New England, dragging a cold front across the region. Thursday will act as the transition day as the cold front pushes across the region.
This front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms, mainly across interior Maine. Outside of Maine, only isolated showers/storm activity is expected. This lack of activity can be attributed to a lack of instability across much of New England due to cloud cover. Vermont, western Massachusetts and northern New Hampshire New England will see more sun today, but the cold front will cross these areas well before peak heating, limiting activity there as well.
The sweet spot for storm activity today will be northern Maine. This area will see the highest levels of instability combine with favorable timing of the cold front crossing the area. Some stronger storms with gusty winds will be possible as the other three main ingredients (outside of instability) for severe weather will be present (shear, lift and moisture).
HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today:
Behind the cold front, rapid clearing is expected to take place. Humidity levels will also be falling behind the front, but the eastern half of New England may not be able to notice until late in the day while western New England will feel the drier conditions early this afternoon. The front will act as atypical summer cold front by knocking out the humidity, but allowing temperatures to remain warm. Highs will be in the 80s for most today with 70s across northern Maine and the mountains.
WRF-ARW showing clearing skies as the cold front ushers in drier air today:
This weekend, including Friday, is shaping up to be a near repeat of last weekend's beautiful weather. Sunnier skies, warm temperatures and low humidity will be in place. This will come as a rather slow moving area of high pressure will take all weekend to traverse New England. This high pressure will allow for a weak flow and sea breezes to develop, keeping the coast cooler. Everyone else should continue with the 80s, and well into the 80s for the typical warm spots.
Heading into next week, a warming trend will likely continue. Humidity levels will also begin to increase after the weekend. The increasing potential for a return to full summer heat has been advertised over the past couple days for New England, though, it looks more like next week's heat will be tempered by a couple factors. On Monday, a weak system over the Atlantic will retrograde westward, bringing cooler temperatures aloft. Another trough will likely swing through around the middle of next week as well.
With that said, a warming trend is still on tap with both temperatures and humidity headed back up, though it doesn't look like it will reach the levels seen during the first half of this month. Highs will be well into the 80s with low 90s possible in places, but, again, temperatures may not be able to reach their full potential. Coastal areas will likely be cooler during this time frame.
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