"Fool's Spring" Ends for New England as Cooler Weather, Snow Returns
- Tim Dennis
- Mar 22
- 4 min read
It happens pretty much every March and/or April. At some point, a more prolonged stretch of milder temperatures comes along, seemingly bringing an end to winter. After persistent cold throughout this winter (something not seen in most other recent winters), the calendar flipped to March and New England's deep freeze came to an end. The first half of March featured above average temperatures and anywhere from 4 to 8 inches less snowfall than average.
Of course, the transition from winter to spring is a non-linear process. Both seasons will win battles at times. Some sustained mild weather this time of year never lasts. Winter will always find its way back into New England, one way or another, for its last gasps before shutting down for good (or at least for a good seven months).
You could say fool's spring ended yesterday with a chilly, raw, damp and, in some places, snowy Friday afternoon. We do have a more mild day on tap for Saturday, but this is looking like an exception rather than rule when looking through the next week and eventually into the start of April.
After a deep ridge of high pressure settles over the area, bringing about a brief warm-up for Saturday afternoon, a potent spring cold front will cross New England this evening. This front will be coming as a compact but energetic low pressure system skirts across the international border. This front will trigger scattered rain showers (changing to snow showers at elevation) this evening into the overnight, moving from west to east.
While the air mass ahead of the front is dry and stable, the energy of the front should be able to get some precipitation going. Showers will be most numerous across the northern third of New England, closer to the source of the cold front (the energetic low passing over southern Quebec).
Below: FV3 showing potential weather this evening:
It'll become windy overnight with strong cold air advection occurring behind the front. Overnight lows will drop into the teens north and 20s south, with colder wind chills. It will be a struggle for temperatures to rise on Sunday, but building high pressure through the day will allow for increasing sunshine and lessening wind in the afternoon. The late March sun will help quite a bit in boosting temperatures.
Below: HRRR showing hourly temperatures from noon Saturday to noon Sunday:
The next, more widespread storm system will enter New England Sunday night into Monday of next week. This system will involve a trough from the Great Lakes moving to the north of New England. A surface low may develop along the storm's triple point (where a cold, warm and occluded front meet) and rotate into New England. This system continues to look like it will bring a shot of snow for many in New England at the onset Monday morning before changing to rain from south to north during the day Monday.
An area of high pressure north of New England will try to lock colder air at the surface for Monday. With that said, a warm front will be lifting northward during the storm. The northern extent of this front will be determined by the track and timing of the secondary, triple point low, which will likely move into the Gulf of Maine ahead of the primary storm's low to the northwest of New England.
These features could lead to a situation where the rain/snow line stalls over interior northern New England, with the storm remaining mainly snow on Monday to the north of this line and snow to rain to the south of it. Naturally, elevation will also play a role in the transition, with valleys of interior northern New England seeing a switch to rain as well. We've reached the point in the season where elevation plays a major role in snowfall.
This currently doesn't have the make-up of a large or powerful storm system, so substantial snow accumulations are very unlikely anywhere in New England. Current trends point toward a potential jackpot zone of 3-6 inches over the mountains with a wider 1-3 inches for lower elevations of interior northern New England.
Below: Current probability of at least 2 inches of snow from Sunday night to Monday night:
New England will generally remain in a trough for next week, keeping the weather unsettled and cooler. The overall flow pattern appears to be fast and unblocked with the jet stream located generally over New England. This will promote the unsettled conditions with multiple waves of energy crossing the region. With that said, there are currently no signals of a larger, more impactful storm system, just generally bouts of unsettled weather with the potential for multiple precipitation types.
One last point to make about the end of fool's spring is that the return of cooler weather will be felt more during the overnights. Cold morning lows in the 20s and 30s, with some teens across the north will rule for the next several days. While there's no significant warm-up in the picture, there's also no true winter chill during the day time expected.
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