Two areas of low pressure will track through New England this afternoon and overnight. The first will pass near the Canadian border while the second will pass near Cape Cod. These systems will lead to another round of afternoon and evening showers and storms with the possibility of heavy rain and strong storms.
THURSDAY
After a very nice morning, clouds will begin to increase across much of the region after noon. Showers and storms will begin to break out in the afternoon. This scattered activity will grow more widespread later in the afternoon and into the evening hours. These showers and storms will continue through much of the overnight hours.
While most of New England will see standard thunderstorms, the Massachusetts South Shore and Cape Cod could see strong to severe storms. This area is most likely to get into the "warm sector" of the southern area of low pressure. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado. Not everyone in the yellow area above will get a strong storm, but anywhere in that zone has the chance to see an isolated potent one.
The most likely time for a stronger storm to develop will be in the evening through about midnight. This timing is favorable for stronger storms to be limited, which is why severe weather is expected to be isolated at best.
HRRR model showing scattered showers and storms breaking out across the region this evening. This activity will slide eastward into Maine as the night goes on:
The bigger issue will be more localized flooding. A flood watch is in effect for eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Total rainfall amounts have trended down, but the flood watch remains up as the threshold for flash flooding to occur in these areas is as low as 1.5 inches of rain thanks to all the other bouts of rain we've had all summer. Up to 2 inches of rain is possible in these areas as storms and showers will be able to produce torrential rainfall. With the scattered nature of the storms, total rainfall will likely vary from community to community.
Overall New England is looking at a widespread quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain with more expected across eastern Massachusetts and eastern Maine, where 1-2 inches is possible. Isolated 1-2 inch amounts will be possible across the Green and White Mountains as well, but these amounts are looking to be the exception rather than the rule in these areas.
FRIDAY
Showers and storms will slowly wind down toward early Friday morning. Some lingering, isolated showers will be possible after daybreak Friday, but this will quickly die off as the morning progresses. Friday itself will be the definition of a typical August day for the southern two thirds of New England with partly cloudy to sunny skies and highs in the low 80s. The northern third could see continued storms through Friday. This area will also be cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
WEEKEND
The weekend forecast is shaky, but certainly not a washout. Scattered thunderstorms and showers will likely break out late afternoon through the evening on Saturday. With this later timing, most of the day will be dry with seasonable highs. Eastern Maine stands the best chance of remaining dry all day long. Some strong storms will be possible across southern New England.
Euro model showing the system passing New England early Saturday night:
Sunday will see a continuation of unsettled weather, but again, not a washout (for most, eastern Maine could see rain much of the day). Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy, however, the atmosphere will be very favorable for scattered storms to pop up during the day. Highs will be very August-like with temps in the 80s and humid conditions (which will help storms develop).
BEYOND
Much of next week is looking to feature very seasonable temperatures. The active pattern continues with potential systems moving through every 48 hours or so. After the Saturday night-Sunday system, there will be a chance for wet weather Tuesday and possibly on Thursday. Of course, timing on these systems can (and most likely will) change this far out.
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