The first in what will likely be a series of storms will continue to work through New England today. A frontal system's primary low will pass to New England's north while a secondary, surface low passes near southern New England. This will yield a wintry mix of precipitation across New England with all precipitation types on the table at some point. This comes after a burst of snow this morning.
The northerly low pressure system will spread a layer of warmer air into the region aloft while the southerly low keeps cold air trapped at the surface. This will change snow over to mixed precipitation from south to north through the afternoon. Temperatures really bottomed out overnight in most areas, which will sharpen the coastal front.
With this cold air mass in place, this coastal front doesn't look like it will make much progress inland. With that said, it's not looking like there will be too much by way of plain rain this afternoon away from the immediate coastline. This front will separate the 20s from the mid to upper 30s at the surface.
Below: HRRR showing potential surface temperatures late this afternoon. The thin red line represents the freezing mark and coastal front:
With the lack of above freezing air this afternoon, the main area to watch will be the timing and northward extent of snowfall changing over to sleet and freezing rain. After a burst of moderate to potentially even heavy snow this morning and early afternoon, the changeover will gradually take over from south to north. This continues to look like a mainly snow event over much of New Hampshire and Maine. A dry slot will likely move into Vermont by mid-afternoon, helping to change snow over to freezing drizzle by mid-afternoon.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon:
Almost everyone in northern New England will see a change to some freezing drizzle (even areas well north in the region) as the system pulls away in the evening. Much of Maine will see a bulk of their snowfall through the afternoon and evening, whereas the rest of New England will see a bulk of accumulation in the morning to early afternoon hours.
The thought process regarding totals has not really changed in the last 36 hours as this storm has remained pretty consistent given the complications with mixing. A very widespread 2-5 inches of snow is likely across New England. The most snow will likely end up being across interior New Hampshire and western Maine.
This storm is a fast-mover and will quickly shut down from southwest to northeast this evening. Maine will naturally be in it the longest being the farthest north and east, but most of the state should be wrapped up by the first half of the night. The system's cold front crosses New England Thursday night into Friday morning, leading to the redevelopment of scattered snow showers for the northern tier overnight.
This front will be ushering in a colder air mass, though it certainly won't be Arctic. This front, combined with a tight pressure gradient from the departing low and incoming high, will create a windy day for Friday. Gusts of 30-40mph will be common across New England with the potential for some gusts up to 50mph.
Below: Potential wind gusts Friday afternoon:
While the busyness of this weather pattern was brought up earlier this week, we can officially say we're entering a bit of a hyper-active stretch with this Thursday storm. After a brief two day pause, another, more impactful storm will be entering New England Saturday night into Sunday. This system will involve an area of low pressure ejecting out of the Great Lakes with a secondary low forming south of New England.
Trends over the last 24 hours have been pushing the storm farther south. This has steadily reduced the chances for widespread mixing issues similar to today' storm. This is shaping up to be a classic New England snowstorm with a track near the benchmark, strong forcing & lift, the development of a coastal front, abundant moisture and decent dynamics. All of this points to widespread impacts from snow.
With all of that said, this storm shouldn't be a blockbuster as there are (pretty major) limiting factors. The overall setup remains zonal. This will result in a progressive storm that will move through the region rather quickly. This progressive nature will prevent the storm from becoming too amplified and will prevent rapid strengthening. Dry air at the onset may eat away at some of the snow initially.
The factors working for the storm should be enough to produce a decent thump of snow, with a widespread zone of 5-8 inches possible. The current track would favor this zone across a large portion of southern and central New England, away from the coastlines. Boston has a very real chance to end their 1,000+ day drought without 6 inches of snow in a day, but this is very far from being locked in.
Below: Current likelihood of at least moderate winter storm impacts Saturday night into Sunday. This is a good representation of where the best potential for where 6+ inches of snow may fall:
The bulk of the storm will likely occur from midnight to noon on Sunday, though trends have been generally pushing the start and end times later on both Saturday and Sunday. The exact timing will be taken care of by the mesoscale models in time.
After this storm, the pattern creating this active stretch will not be breaking down. The fast, zonal flow across the country will continue to push storms near New England every 2-3 days. This comes as New England will be on the battleground between the cold air mass to the north and milder air mass to the south. This is a favorable setup for storms to form and organize across the region.
New England looks to generally be on the cooler side of these systems with mainly snow currently favored. The next storm after this weekend will likely come around the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. This storm currently looks to track farther south than this weekend, but there remains a significant spread in ensembles, which is expected at this time range. Changes in the track can and will happen.
Below: Current Weather Prediction Center probability of impactful winter weather Tuesday into Wednesday morning (February 11-12):
Additional storms will be possible later next week as well. While this stretch may invoke flashbacks of the 2015 snow blitz, this setup is not conducive to major blockbuster storms (producing 18-24+ inches). The fast, zonal flow will prevent deep strengthening of storms and will generally keep them quicker-moving. For blockbusters, the setup needs to be highly amplified, which is the opposite of zonal flow. This was the setup for 2015, which produced four major storms in as many weeks with many more much smaller ones in between.
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