The much-discussed Arctic Blast this week will be peaking in intensity over the next two days for New England. By Thursday, a very gradual warm-up will ensue, which will bring us back to seasonal averages by the weekend. This cold and dry air mass will aid in keeping storm tracks to the south of New England, with two passing offshore through this weekend.
Arctic high pressure will generally remain in control of New England's through the week. This high pressure is currently centered to New England's southwest, near the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, where the coldest temperatures relative to average will be during this time. This afternoon's wind chills won't rise out of the single digits, on either side of zero.
The coldest of the temperatures will come Wednesday morning, when lows will range from 0° in southernmost New England to -15° across the northern tier. While winds will be rather calm, feels-like temperatures will dip from the slight breeze combined with these very low actual temperatures.
New England will actually be under the influence of a general west-southwesterly flow today, which would normally help warm things up at least a bit. This won't be the case today as this Arctic air mass is so deep and far reaching. It's so far-reaching that highs will remain around the freezing mark for much of the Gulf Coast today.
A historic winter storm will be impacting the Gulf Coast, where as much as 4-8 inches of snow may fall through today from Texas to the Florida panhandle. Blizzard Warnings are in effect this morning for portions of the Texas-Louisiana border. The National Weather Service of New Orleans stated yesterday:
"It is looking increasingly likely that the New Orleans and Baton Rouge Metro areas will see historic snowfall totals that have not been observed since at least 1963, if not 1895."
Below: Weather alerts as of Tuesday morning:
As expected, New England is more on the fringes of this Arctic Blast, with the lowest of the temperatures relative to averages to the south and west. The fact that winds will be on the calmer side compared to other recent Arctic Blasts will help keep this one in check. New England won't be coming close to the blast of early February 2023.
Heading through the rest of this week, the southern stream storm system impacting the Gulf Coast is slated to remain to the south of New England. At this point, the large-scale flow pattern doesn't look conducive for bringing the storm into New England, but rather shear off to the south of the region.
Below: Upper-level flow pattern later this week, showing a pattern that may not be amplified enough to allow a late-week storm system to move more northward, though trends will be watched:
With that said, the coastal storm tracks will be close enough to be monitored. For tonight, a southern stream system will move well to the south of New England. The storm will likely come just close enough to send its outermost bands into Cape Cod and the Islands Tuesday evening through the overnight. These snow showers may be able to amount to an inch or two for the Cape and Islands should the snow showers be persistent enough.
Below: HRRR showing expected weather overnight tonight:
A northern stream system will scoot through New England today and tonight. This will aid in increasing clouds for a period, but the dry, Arctic air mass will preclude any snow showers outside of some quick, scattered flurries, mainly across the northern tier of the region. This system and the southern system will not phase at all.
Another (weak) low pressure system will pass offshore later Thursday into Friday. Like tonight's system, the upper-level flow is in favor of this storm staying well south of New England. On top of that, there is little to no moisture over New England for the system to work with given the Arctic air mass.
Another decaying northern stream wave will pass through Thursday into Friday as well. This will likely be a mainly dry passage, but, again, a few snow showers may be able to pop up here and there on Friday across the north. Phasing is not expected once again. Should the southern stream system trend a bit north (like it did for tonight), some of the outermost snow showers could reach for Southeast Massachusetts, but this remains a low chance.
The Arctic air will begin to retreat by Thursday as the ridge of high pressure shifts offshore, allowing a more mild return flow. The warm-up will be very gradual and will not be significant. Highs will return to the 20s north and 30s south by the weekend. There are no major thaws in the picture for New England at this time. Morning lows will remain cold through the weekend (and beyond).
While there are no major thaws in the picture, there are also no major storm systems, either. Overall, a zonal flow is expected to be in place. This would allow for smaller and weaker precipitation chances to scoot through New England into early to mid next week, but nothing of note to bring up at this time.
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