The two main weather stories during this very quiet weekend will be the continued risk for wildfires spread and the chance for some very minor coastal flooding. Southern New England is under their seventh red flag warning in nine days and twelfth overall since late October. The main driver for today's fire risk will be wind gusts of 20-30mph within this very dry air mass.
As for coastal flooding, monthly astronomical high tides have arrived. Despite an offshore flow for much of New England, a very minor surge is expected with a cutoff low spinning just to the northeast of Maine. With astronomical high tides, a surge of just a foot may be enough in some low areas to receive splash over and ponding during today's late morning high tide. A coastal flood advisory is in effect through the early afternoon for New England's eastern facing coast.
With bone dry weather continuing this weekend, the question remains when will New England receive a slug of beneficial rainfall? A large swath of New England is currently experiencing drought conditions with a large swath of Massachusetts in a severe drought. The next several days will be more of the same for New England, but an end to this dry streak may be coming into the picture.
Next week will feature two shower chances, the first one on Monday will be more of the same. That is to say a weak area of low pressure will move well to the north of New England, dragging its weakening fronts across New England. This will result in little to no measurable precipitation, but at least a chance for a couple showers. Ridging will quickly build back into the region afterward. It's this general setup of brief and weak troughing followed by extended periods of ridging that have significantly limited rain chances for New England.
Below: Current Weather Prediction Center precipitation forecast through Thursday morning, showing more of the same:
By the middle to end of next week, however, the page may finally be turning as multiple factors continue to look like they'll come together to bring the region a widespread soaking rainfall. Around the middle of the week, a trough will dig into the Great Lakes. An area of low pressure will form within this trough. The jet stream will likely become more amplified (a wavy pattern across the US) and feature a flip in what has been the case over much of the past month with a ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern developing.
Below: The pattern described above as seen on a 500mb anomaly map showing the trough near New England and a Greenland Block, which supports a more amplified flow:
With a more amplified flow expected, it will support the primary area of low pressure over the Great Lakes to strengthen, and possibly strengthen quickly. As of right now, it appears that a secondary low will form near the New England coastline. This will help the overall system bring a widespread rainfall to New England sometime from Thursday to Friday ( the current most likely timing).
Below: Current weather map for Thursday morning, showing the primary low near Michigan and Ohio with a secondary low forming near the east coast:
Should all of this pan out (models are beginning to come into some semblance of agreement on this), it would bring New England an all day (or night) type rainfall. Now, over the past couple weeks, it's looked like there would be a chance for widespread rain coming to New England before the system fizzled out as the time got closer. With that said, we're not about to call for a widespread soaking right now just to see that happen again. We'll be watching the trends all week long, but the setup this time around is looking more favorable.
The key to getting a widespread rainfall with this system will come down to whether or not a secondary low can form near the coastline, and how much it can strengthen. The overall timing and track will be important as well and these remain areas of high uncertainty. The track will make or break rain chances and determine what areas of New England see the most precipitation.
One last note about this potential storm is that it currently looks like it will be too mild across New England for much of anything other than plain rain. The track and timing will also play a role into whether or not a switch to snow can occur at higher elevations at some point late next week as unsettled weather may persist beyond this system.
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