Our cautious optimism for Vermont’s flood situation with the remnants of Debby panned out, with minimal issues for the state. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for upstate New York and parts of Pennsylvania, which were hit rather hard with flash flooding, including a flash flood emergency for Steuben County, New York. Parts of New York and Pennsylvania picked up 3-5 inches of rain while northern New England saw 1-2 inches at most, a good portion of this fell during the Friday morning round of rain.
While flooding was mostly avoided in western New England, winds began to crank up as Debby lifted north of New England. At one point yesterday evening, nearly 50,000 were without power in Vermont alone. Outages to a lesser extent were seen across the rest of New England. As of 9am, about 37,000 remain without power across New England with 24,000 out in Vermont.
Now that Debby is pulling away, a cold front will be dragged across New England. This front will gradually wipe away the tropical air mass that the storm brought with it. Dew points will be falling through the day. Widespread dew points in the 70s this morning will drop to the 50s to low 60s by this evening. Humidity will stay on the lower end of the spectrum for Sunday as well.
For the next week or so, New England will generally remain within a large-scale trough, though it likely won't remain centered directly over the region. This will create broad cyclonic flow aloft with temperatures remaining on the colder side high in the atmosphere. Ridging will build across central Canada with surface high pressure building to New England's west.
The following shows 500mb height anomaly on Tuesday (August 13) depicting a trough extending across the northeast United States and the Canadian Maritimes. The second image shows surface high pressure building from the west midweek. This general setup remains in place for much of the upcoming week:
This general setup will lead to an overall stagnant flow pattern and generally quiet weather. Much of next week is looking very pleasant and tranquil across New England. With that said, the trough and cyclonic flow aloft may result in scattered pop-up afternoon showers and storms, but nothing anywhere near impactful. This overall setup favors very seasonable weather with near average temperatures. This setup will also keep oppressive humidity from building.
As far as the tropics go, there is an increasing chance that the next tropical cyclone will form next week as a tropical wave moves west-northwestward toward the Antilles. This storm has an increasing chance to become Tropical Storm Ernesto next week, with an 80% chance of development by the time it gets near Cuba.
A preliminary look at the steering setup favors the storm curving away from the United States, but considering the storm hasn't even formed yet, a forecast isn't really possible beyond a general outlook. The question for any impacts on the east coast will come down to how quickly the storm re-curves.
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