A retrograding cutoff low will continue to meander northwest-ward around Nova Scotia today. At the same time, another storm system will remain well to New England's south as it slides away from the east coast. Between these systems is a wedge of very dry, almost desert-like, air. This air mass over much of New England will preclude showers from the cutoff low for much of New England today.
As the cutoff low continues to drift around the Canadian Maritimes, it will send scattered showers into eastern Maine. The very dry air mass will be eating away at these showers, which will keep precipitation on the light side. Trends over the last 24 hours have been toward a sharper westward cutoff in shower activity as it looks like the very dry air mass will win out and eat away at the showers as they move past eastern Maine. Spotty freezing rain showers remain possible across easternmost Maine this morning before switching to rain showers.
Below: GFS showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today:
It'll be a tale of two New Englands today as cool, cloudy and damp weather occurs across eastern Maine while the rest of New England remains dry with a warming trend beginning. Skies will likely see some increasing clouds from east to west, but the air mass is so dry, it may be difficult to get much cloud cover west of Maine today with southern New England likely staying mostly sunny all day.
The main weather stories for much of New England today and into this weekend will be the continued fire risk and the potential for some minor coastal flooding. A large portion of New England is under its most expansive red flag warning that it has seen so far this fall and the 11th red flag warning overall. With a tightening pressure gradient, and very dry air, the risk of fire spread remains very high.
The continuously tightening pressure gradient between the cutoff low to the east and building high pressure to the west will lead to gustier winds for Saturday. With continued dry weather, another red flag warning for Saturday is likely at this time, at least for southern New England. Winds will gust between 20-30mph and relative humidity will remain in the 20-35% zone, with the driest air over southern New England.
Astronomical high tides have arrived and will continue through the weekend. A coastal flood statement has been issued for most southern New England with coastal flood advisories in effect for western Connecticut and the central New England coastline. Very minor flooding and splash over is expected. These conditions will continue into the Saturday morning high tide along with a new round of coastal flood alerts.
The cutoff low around Nova Scotia will continue to swirl around the Maritimes on Saturday. This will continue the cloudy and damp weather in eastern Maine, though showers will likely begin to become more isolated through the day Saturday. Clouds from the system may be able to push farther east than they will on Friday, but the dry air mass will keep much of New England outside of Maine mostly sunny to partly cloudy rather than mostly cloudy. Shower activity will be kept far away from much of the region (outside of eastern Maine).
Below: GFS showing potential weather from midnight tonight through Saturday evening:
With the bone dry weather continuing, the risk for wildfires will remain elevated for much of New England until further notice. Since the Hawthorne Fire broke out in Connecticut on October 21st, at least a portion of New England has seen elevated to critical fire risk everyday since. This streak is now going on 26 days. This includes 6 red flag warning days in the last 8 days. With another red flag warning expected for southern New England on Saturday, the question remains, when will it rain enough to end this?
Below: Fire weather outlook for Saturday (November 16):
After brief ridging on Sunday, flow is expected to turn more zonal. This flow will send a fast moving and weak system to the north of New England on Monday. This will, in turn, pull a weak cold front across the region. While showers are possible, they're looking very paltry with very limited to no measurable precipitation. At this point, much of New England may end up completely dry. This system is not the answer and will do little to nothing for the drought or fire risk.
Heading toward the end of next week, things may get interesting and beneficial for New England. A ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern may develop, flipping the script that has generally been in place for much of this month. A blocking high will likely remain in place over Greenland as the pattern shifts from a more zonal flow (flat jet stream) to an amplified flow (wavy jet stream) allowing for more unsettled weather potential for New England.
Below: The pattern described above as seen on a 500mb anomaly map showing the trough near New England and a Greenland Block:
The general consensus right now is for an area of low pressure to move through the Great Lakes with a surface low forming along the system's triple-point and moving through New England. This setup would be favorable for much needed widespread rainfall. Now, this is a week out, so we're not locking anything in; the overall setup is favorable for widespread rainfall.
Below: Weather map for next Friday morning (November 22):
Over the past couple weeks, it's looked like there would be a chance for widespread rain coming to New England before the system fizzled out as the time got closer. Anyone who's read these posts daily has seen it. With that said, we're not about to call for a widespread soaking just to see that happen again. We'll be watching the trends all week long as anything remains on the table.
Comments