After a low pressure system moves to the north of New England this morning, high pressure will build back into New England for the remainder of the weekend. The system to the north will drag its weak cold front across the region, though there won't be much of an air mass change behind it, so temperatures will remain seasonable to mild for New England. Rapid clearing is expected behind the front into this afternoon.
It will be New England's next system that will usher in a cooler, more October-like air mass into the region. An upper-level system will pass well to the north of New England, dragging its fronts across the region. This may spawn a surface low over New England, which would help create more widespread showers. These showers will move west east starting Sunday night for western New England and moving eastward through the day Monday.
This system will move into eastern Canada by Tuesday morning, which will allow for a drying trend for most of New England. The exception will be eastern Maine, where wetter weather may persist into midweek. This would come as the surface low phases with the upper-low over Canada, allowing moisture to continue to wrap into easternmost New England. For the rest of New England, drier weather will take over starting on Tuesday, though broad cyclonic flow aloft may result in a couple brief, spot afternoon showers, mainly in the mountains.
This will continue to be beneficial rainfall as abnormally dry conditions have spread over much of New England and even a moderate drought has developed over the northern New England coastal plain. Currently, a widespread 0.25-0.75 inches of rain is looking likely across New England, with the most across northern areas. Eastern Maine may see over an inch as moisture may wrap back into the area. The bulk of the rain (potentially 2-3 inches) is currently expected to remain just to the east of New England over New Brunswick.
Current 5 day rainfall forecast. Note the amounts of 2-3 inches over Canada, the easternmost edge of this banding may bleed into easternmost Maine:
Once this system passes, New England will remain in a trough as an expansive ridge builds across the western and central United States. This will be a transition away from the country's recent pattern, which has been more of a zonal flow, which is when the jet stream lays generally flat across the country.
This change will mainly be felt with temperatures. Cool weather will prevail for much of next week with widespread highs in the 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows may drop into the 30s to low 40s across New England around midweek. The first chance for a more widespread frost will come during this time. So far, Essex County in Vermont is the only county to have seen a frost advisory this season. That should be changing next week. With unsettled weather persisting in the mountains, some summit snow showers will be possible.
As we mentioned in our monthly outlook, this may be a persistent pattern as the western ridge looks to hold in place for the next couple weeks. This would keep general troughing over New England during this time. This can be seen in the Climate Prediction Center's temperature outlooks. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks look similar and showcase a classic ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern. New England will likely feature the coolest weather in the country next week.
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