A closed upper low will become centered right over northern New England today, continuing the seasonably cool and unsettled weather over the next two days. With the low over northern New England, it will be northern areas that see the most numerous showers over the next 48 hours, with coverage dropping the farther south in New England you go.
With the low pressure system meandering around for the next two days, the weather will remain stagnant, with both days very similar to each other. With the low lifting to the northwest through Thursday, however, shower coverage will likely be lower than Wednesday, leading to an overall drier day. Temperatures will remain around the same levels.
HRRR showing potential weather from midday Wednesday to Thursday evening:
With a cold pool aloft and instability building, some thunderstorms will be possible among the showers, mainly across northern New England. Overall, the northern tier of New England will likely see quarter inch to half an inch of rainfall over the next 48 hours, with the Green Mountains and northern Maine seeing the most. Central and southern New England will see far less. Locally, over an inch is possible in areas that get under a thunderstorm.
Heading into Friday and the weekend, high pressure will build to the west of New England, allowing both the drying and warming trend to continue. Friday and Saturday will see the high pressure battle with weak low pressure to the north of New England, but the high should win out with very nice weather expected.
Weather map for Saturday:
Heading toward Sunday, the chance for showers increases, at least for northern New England, but nothing anywhere near impactful or a washout. This comes as a weak trough looks to dig back into New England for the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. As of now, this weak trough looks to Center itself over New England on Monday. After that, it becomes futile to try to determine exactly how long the trough sticks around. Monday will likely feature scattered showers and storms.
GFS showing a weak trough over New England on Monday afternoon with ridging to the north and west:
Temperature-wise, each day from here on out through the weekend should be a notch warmer than the last as the low pressure gradually moves away and high pressure builds from the west. This will allow a switch from a more northerly flow to a more southwesterly flow. Temperatures look to peak on Sunday before the aforementioned trough at least temporarily (and slightly) drops temperatures off for early next week.
Despite the warming temperatures, humidity will remain generally in check through the weekend. It will be on the rise for the weekend, but the flow will be more westerly rather than deep southwesterly. This will help keep humidity from rising too much through the weekend.
Looking ahead to next week, the generally warmer weather does look to continue with meteorological summer closing out with more mild temperatures. It needs to be noted that this will hinge on the trough moving out of the region in a timely manner early next week. We did note in our August monthly outlook that a cool down in the middle of the month may be followed by a warm up to close out the month.
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