A rather strong cold front will be dropping through New England today. This will bring the region colder air and scattered snow showers Thursday and Thursday night. The northern third of New England face the best chance at seeing a dusting to two inches today and tonight. Once the front passes, winds will be blustery, with gusts of 20-30mph. Couple this with the colder temperatures and Friday morning will be very cold.
This cold will set the stage for an incoming storm this weekend. As expected, models are starting to come into better agreement this morning on what this storm will do and where it will track. The track is starting to look like it will be between the benchmark and Cape Cod. Overall, this will not be a major storm for New England.
This track would introduce an east wind and more mild air along and near the southern New England coastline, allowing mixing and rain. The heaviest band of snow would likely setup across central New England, mainly the Worcester Hills, Berkshires, southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire. Lighter snow would occur to the north.
It needs to be noted that models are just starting to come into agreement and shifts in the track can still occur at this point. Trends over the last 24 hours have pushed the track further north. We'll need to continue watching these trends as a shift north or south will have a big implication on snow totals.
It continues to look like this storm will produce snowfall that adds up to the single digits with very low probabilities of a foot of snow anywhere. Probabilities jump quite a bit when lowering the amount to 6 inches. With that in mind, it continues to look like the jackpot zone will feature around 5-8 inches. Where this sets up will be determined by the storm's ultimate track, but it's most likely to occur across interior Massachusetts and/or southern New Hampshire.
There are currently two areas with the greatest uncertainty. These areas are near the coastline of southern New England, mainly the south shore and going northward into central Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. The coastline will likely see some mixing. Just how far inland this mixing gets will have a major role in snowfall amounts.
For the areas further north, the track of the storm will be crucial. There may be a rather sharp cutoff in snow totals working northward. A northward jog in the track would push higher amounts further north, while a southward jog would keep northern New England out of the storm. We should have a clearer image of snowfall amounts by tonight or tomorrow morning.
As for timing, the storm looks to be a 24-hour event for New England, starting Saturday night and lasting through Sunday night. The peak of the storm is currently looking to be Sunday morning through the early afternoon. The storm will likely take a while to shut down, with snow showers gradually winding down from west to east Sunday evening into the night. Backside snow showers will remain possible across the mountains on Monday.
Expected weather Sunday morning around sunrise (1st image) and early afternoon (2nd image):
Winds will also become gusty near the coast. 40-50mph gusts will likely be seen in these areas. Combine this with a heavier, sticky snow, and some power outages could result. The question remains just how much sticky snow will fall near the coast versus sleet and/or rain.
The stormy weather for New England will likely continue after this storm. Another impactful storm is looking to cross the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm could rapidly intensify as it approaches New England, producing heavy precipitation and strong winds. Precipitation type will be a challenge with this storm in regards to who gets snow and who gets rain.
The storm could start as a burst of snow for most before a quick changeover to rain. Of course, this is an early trend. The main storm system's track will likely take one that favors more rain for most, but if a surface low forms near the coast, it could help lock colder air into the system. Being 6-7 days out, there's plenty of time to watch this one, especially with the first storm coming this weekend.
Euro model showing potential weather Wednesday morning. GFS and CMC generally agree with this outcome at this time:
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