New England's storm from this past weekend continues to very slowly drift away from the area. The large (and now strong) storm is still just offshore of the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, a strong, Arctic area of high pressure is centered just to New England's west, over the central Plains. The pressure difference between these two systems is about 90 millibars. With New England caught in the middle of this tight gradient, winds have been whipping, and will continue to do so through the day today.
Below: Pressure map for this afternoon, showing New England caught right in the middle of a strong high and low pressure system:
With the departing storm creating a strong west-northwest flow and an Arctic high pressure system firmly in place to the west, temperatures will continue to hover below average. Today will be the coldest day of the week with highs ranging from the low teens north to mid 20s south. Combine this with the winds, and wind chills today will remain in the single digits, on either side of zero, through the day for most.
As the storm system continues to depart, winds will very gradually begin to ease tonight and into Wednesday. This slow departure will also allow a very gradual moderation in temperature to commence. The key word is gradual, as temperatures will remain seasonably cold through the rest of the week, but temperatures will likely get a few degrees higher each day.
The current Arctic outbreak will remain centered to the west of New England, as most Arctic Blasts have been this winter. Cold weather alerts stretch from the Canadian border to the Mexican border.
Below: Weather alerts across the United States as of Tuesday morning:
Outside of the cold and windy weather for New England, there are limited chances for precipitation through the rest of the week. This break in the action comes after a parade of storms, with varying intensity and impacts, came through New England in succession over the past week and a half. With that said, it won't be 100% quiet over the next week.
First up, the strong west-northwest flow is allowing moisture streaming off Lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario to chain together to create an elongated, narrow band of lake effect snow. This band stretched about 800 miles yesterday and may do the same this afternoon. This would allow the band to reach into western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Should it hold together this long, light snowfall would occur, but would be extremely localized. Broad cyclonic flow may also support scattered flurries/snow showers across the mountains.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather this afternoon:
The next organized system to watch will be in the area on Thursday into Thursday night. A southern stream storm system will slide across the country over the next couple days before ejecting off the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday. Northern stream energy will be moving out of the Great Lakes during this time as well. Guidance continues to be in general agreement that this storm will travel outside the benchmark, providing a glancing blow to southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island with very limited to no impacts north and west of Boston.
While the heaviest snow bands will likely miss New England entirely, a period of steadier snow will still be possible across the South Shore, Cape, Islands and Rhode Island. This steadier snow may result in minor accumulations, on the order of 1-3 inches. Cape Cod and the Islands stand the best chance to see 3+ inches at this point. Current probabilities of at least four inches of snow tops out at 40-50% for Cape Cod and the Islands.
Below: Current probability of at least 2 inches of snow Thursday into Friday morning:
A more northerly trend can't be completely ruled out yet due to potential interaction with the northern stream. These systems appear to interact too late to bring widespread snowfall farther north. Should the northern stream system and the coastal storm interact more, or if this interaction is able to occur earlier, the coastal storm will get tugged north and west, closer to New England. This remains a low chance, but worth at least bringing up.
Speaking of the northern stream system, it is weak and rather moisture-starved. With that said, it could create just enough forcing on its own to produce some light and scattered snow showers across northern New England Thursday and Thursday night. Without a moisture and energy injection from the southern stream, this would amount to very little to no accumulation for northern areas (and snow showers would have a tough time getting going to begin with).
Below: NAM showing potential weather Thursday evening:
Looking at the bigger picture, the large-scale flow pattern set up over New England does not support the storm making a closer pass to New England. For much of February, the east has generally been under a zonal flow. With the jet stream generally south of New England, a path more out to sea rather than up the coast is the more likely outcome.
Below: Main flow pattern later Thursday:
After two stormy weekends, signs are pointing toward a quiet upcoming weekend. Weak upper-level high pressure looks to build into the region, precluding any widespread precipitation. A moisture-starved disturbance may quickly cut through over the weekend, potentially bringing light snow showers, mainly across the north. The next storm to watch will likely enter the picture early to mid next week. Overall, a quieter and calmer stretch is in store for much of New England for the next several days.
Below: Current 7-day precipitation forecast, showing limited activity over New England:
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