A cold front will push through New England today and settle just to the south of the region this afternoon. While the cold front will cool things off from Wednesday's 70s and 80s, it is weak and the air mass behind it is not all that cool. Temperatures will remain generally above average today, especially for southern New England. Cooler air will be filtering into northern New England throughout today, so temperature will likely stall out in the morning and begin to drop in the afternoon.
A much stronger cold front will move through New England during the afternoon and evening of Friday. This front will usher in much cooler and seasonable temperatures back into New England. Southern and central New England will still be on the mild side for Friday as the front arrives later in the day. The northern tier will be back closer to seasonable levels, likely right around where Thursday afternoon ends up.
This stronger cold front will allow for some scattered rain and snow showers to develop during the day Friday. The best chance for showers will be just ahead of the cold front in the afternoon and evening for the northern third of the region. A potentially gusty line of showers looks to develop along the Canadian border by mid-afternoon and push through the mountains through the evening. These showers will weaken and dissipate as they push southward, with only a couple wayward sprinkles making it to the Massachusetts border.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather from noon to 8pm Friday:
Both of these fronts will keep the breezy conditions around as well. Gusts of 15-30mph will occur on Thursday with gusts likely ticking up a notch for Friday with the stronger cold front. With dry frontal passages for southern New England, these gusts will lead to continued very high fire risk. Friday will be the highest risk of the week and another red fag warning could very well be posted for the day.
An elevated risk will continue everyday for the rest of the week, at least. Several New brush fires have broken out over the past 24-36 hours with many still burning across Massachusetts and Connecticut. These fires will be fanned by the blustery winds this week.
Below: Significant fire potential for Friday, November 8, highlighting southern New England as a potential high risk area due to high winds:
After Friday's cold front clears New England, the entire region will be primed for more seasonable temperatures this weekend, with 40s north and 50s south dominating. An expansive high pressure will set up, keeping a northwest flow and dry conditions over New England for the weekend.
Later on Sunday and into Monday, New England's next system arrives with the potential for widespread showers. A frontal system will push through the Great Lakes on Sunday before moving to the north of New England Sunday night into Monday. This track will keep the best forcing for rainfall and the highest moisture to the north as well.
With that said, a decent moisture plume is expected to reach all of New England. With fronts crossing New England, there may be enough forcing across southern New England to get into widespread showers. It won't be a big rainmaker or drought-buster, but the potential is there for up to a quarter inch of rain across much of New England. Any rainfall will be very welcome at this point.
Below: Weather Prediction Center 7-day rainfall outlook, featuring a quarter inch of rain across much of New England. It would be a nice start:
The US drought Monitor is updated every Thursday and drought conditions have expanded quite a bit in New England, as expected. A severe drought has expanded westward into central Massachusetts with over 30% of the state seeing those conditions. Moderate drought conditions have expanded quite a bit, as seen below.
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