As per usual in New England, intense heat and humidity will be coming to an end at the hands of a cold front. This front will set up very nice weather heading into next week, but in order to get there, we have to get through another round of thunderstorms on Saturday.
This cold front will be sagging through New England all day. Due to the timing of the front, there will likely be a decent temperature gradient (for summer) from far northern areas to far southern areas. Burlington, Vermont, despite only dropping into the upper 60s for a morning low, will only rise to the low 70s for a high. Hartford Connecticut will likely rise to the mid to upper 80s with a feels like temperature in the mid 90s.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
The cold front will erupt a line of thunderstorms across the northern tier of New England late this morning and into the early afternoon. An area of low pressure will continue showers and perhaps some storms across northern Vermont for at least Saturday morning. Northern Maine, being further from the system, will likely see a dry day Saturday.
Euro model showing storms around central New England early in the afternoon:
From the White and Maine mountains southward, thunderstorms could begin erupting as early as late morning with scattered storms continuing through the rest of the afternoon. The overall set up is similar to Thursday, however, the bulk of the severe weather is expected to remain in southern New England this time around. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms are possible with the potential to bring heavy rain and gusty winds. An isolated tornado and hail are extremely unlikely, but not impossible given the set up.
These storms and regular rain showers will likely continue to crop up through evening before the overall system slides south and east away from the area after sunset with drier conditions developing for the overnight.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Southern New England has one more hot and humid day to go on Saturday before widespread storms kick off. The overall setup is very similar to what the region saw on Thursday, with potentially similar impacts. I say "potentially" since there's still quite a bit of range in models on just how widespread severe weather will be and where exactly the strongest storms will set up.
While strong to severe storms will be possible across much of New England, generally, the further south you go, the higher the chances of seeing severe weather. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has areas south of the Mass Pike with the best chance of severe weather. The biggest question mark will be if enough instability will be able to develop. A full fledged severe outbreak is not as certain as it was yesterday.
A few storms will begin erupting in the morning, and some late morning storms could turn strong to severe. Storms will likely continue to grow in numbers throughout the afternoon. The number of storms and storm intensity may peak in the evening, but storms will likely be firing all day, so keep an eye to the sky if outdoors for the duration of the day.
HRRR showing a possible peak in activity this evening:
This will not be a "one line and then it's over" kind of thunderstorm day. Some areas could see multiple rounds of storms move through during the day as multiple lines of storms move through. Not every area will see multiple storms, but some places very likely will. It won't be raining all afternoon, there will be breaks between the storms.
The threats for these storms in southern New England are basically the same as they were on Thursday. Torrential rain and flash flooding will be the biggest concern (flood watches may be posted later today) along with damaging straight line winds. Hail and tornadoes are also possible, but not to the extent of rainfall and straight line winds.
BEYOND
After this unsettled and stormy day, New England will be in for a quiet, generally sunny and much cooler day on Sunday. This cooler weather will be felt for much of next week. At least the first half of next week will be generally dry for most. There could be reinforcing shots of cool air for northern New England early next week.
While all of the region is looking to be below average temperature wise, this will be felt the most across northern areas. As of now, it looks like southern New England will only be slightly below average, setting up a very nice stretch of weather.
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