A stronger cold front compared to the one yesterday will push through New England this afternoon and evening, bringing a much more November-like air mass to the region. Across southern and central New England, temperatures will briefly warm into the 60s once again as a southwest flow continues ahead of the front. This will allow one more mild day before the more seasonable temperatures arrive for the weekend. Northern areas will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s as the front arrives earlier and more clouds will be in place.
The main story with the frontal passage will be gusty winds. As the front approaches, winds will pick up and remain elevated behind the front throughout the night as the air mass changes. The area of low pressure associated with the front will be strengthening as it passes north of Maine. As this happens, high pressure will begin to build to the west, allowing for a tight gradient and gusty winds all night long into Saturday morning.
Winds will be strongest closer to the deepening area of low pressure, which will be just to the northeast of Maine this afternoon and evening. Gusts of 40-50mph are possible across northern Maine and New Hampshire, with gusts of 25-40mph elsewhere. This has prompted a low-end wind advisory for northern Maine tonight.
While wind gusts won't be as strong across southern New England, they are the most concerning. These wind gusts will continue to provide a very favorable environment for wildfires to spread. With continued bone dry conditions and low humidity, fire risk is highly elevated today. A red flag warning has once again been issued for all of southern New England.
Fires that continue to burn will be fanned and New fires are likely to erupt today. Recent fire activity in Massachusetts includes a large one in Chicopee that temporarily closed down the Mass Pike yesterday and a fire burning close to an apartment complex in Saugus. Dozens of other fires remain active across Massachusetts and Connecticut. New fires will likely spring up today and tonight.
The front will likely trigger some scattered showers across the northern third of New England this afternoon and evening, but the line will weaken, fall apart and dry up as it approaches the Massachusetts border. Only a couple wayward showers/sprinkles are likely to survive beyond the northern tier of the region.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather this evening:
Winds will be strongest overnight tonight, which will prevent radiational cooling, but strong cold air advection behind the front will allow temperatures to drop into 20s and 30s region-wide. With the gusty winds, it will be a cold night, with feels-like temperatures in the teens and 20s.
Saturday will be much more November-like than what we have seen so far in this new month. Highs will range from the upper 30s in northern Maine to the mid 50s across southern New England. Winds will gradually diminish as high pressure to our west takes over for the low to our east. This will allow the gradient to loosen and winds to ease. High fire risk will continue and a red flag warning may be posted for Saturday as well.
New England's next system will arrive Sunday night into Monday morning. This frontal system will be pushing through the Great Lakes on Sunday. The system is compact, so Sunday in New England will be dry, though clouds will likely increase from west to east later in the day. While rainfall is unlikely to amount to much, anything will be welcome at this point.
Showers will likely break out region-wide Sunday evening and continue through the overnight hours into Monday morning. The system is progressive, so it will likely quickly wind down Monday afternoon. The system will be passing to New England's north, which will keep the most rainfall to the north of New England. With that said, moisture will increase ahead of the system and the system's fronts should provide enough forcing to allow for showers region-wide. Total rainfall is looking to fall in the 0.10-0.25" range region-wide.
Looking into the extended for more rain chances, there are signals that a coastal low could form late next week, possibly Thursday into Friday (November 14-15). A trough is currently poised to drop southeast out of the Great Lakes during this time frame. If a surface low can form near New England, it could finally bring New England a notable rain event.
Below: GFS showing the trough dropping southeast of New England. Exactly where the system tracks remains uncertain as a large spread exists:
If it forms too far to the east or south, New England will miss out on most of the rain. If everything falls in favor for New England, a widespread soaking rain will be on tap. There's still plenty of uncertainty with this system and a miss is still just as possible as a hit at this point, but it's worth at least bringing up at this point as rain is so needed.
The US drought Monitor is updated every Thursday and drought conditions have expanded quite a bit in New England, as expected. A severe drought has expanded westward into central Massachusetts with over 30% of the state seeing those conditions. Moderate drought conditions have expanded quite a bit, as seen below.
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