An area of low pressure will track to New England's north on Friday. This will drag it's associated cold front across the region, leading to thunderstorms and an abrupt drop in humidity. Storms will have the chance to turn severe for eastern parts of the region as well.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Overnight Thursday into Friday will see a warm front lift across southern New England. This front will allow some storms to break out early in the morning on Friday across southern areas. This front will also bring a stark increase in humidity. This will set the stage for the main line of storms during the day on Friday.
HRRR showing storms approaching western New England ahead of cold front while storms break out in southern New England as warm front lifts into region early Friday morning:
FRIDAY
Storms will continue to fill in inside the "warm sector" (area between warm and cold front) Friday morning. At this same time, the main line of storms will begin to enter into western New England.
HRRR showing high thunderstorm activity around mid-morning:
This main line of storms will continue to trudge through New England throughout the morning and into the afternoon. While there is a chance for stronger storms in the morning, the main threat will be in the afternoon. It's this timing that is the main limiting factor for severe weather. It's why a full-fledged severe weather outbreak is not expected.
Despite this, there is the chance for some storms to turn strong to severe, mainly in eastern areas, in the late morning through the afternoon. All threats are on the table, with damaging wind gusts, hail and tornadoes all possible. Again, all these threats are low, but possible.
The main line of storms will move into Maine by mid-afternoon. By this point, the line will have lost some strength, but rain and storms will occur across the state throughout the afternoon, evening and into the night.
There are signs of another line of storms trying to form back across New Hampshire and Massachusetts in the mid to late afternoon. Severe storms will be possible in this line. Actually, this line may pose the best chance for severe weather. The main issue for this is that this line may have trouble forming and will likely produce much less numerous storms.
HRRR showing the main line of storms in Maine while a second line tries to form across central New England around mid-afternoon:
The main takeaway from all of this is to be ready for scattered thunderstorms all day Friday. It won't be raining all day Friday, and some sun will be possible between the storms. How much sun will help determine how warm it can get as well as the extent of strong storms.
FRIDAY NIGHT
By Friday evening, the front will have cleared all of New England minus eastern Maine and maybe Cape Cod. Lingering storms will slowly die off after sunset with the loss of daytime heating across New England. The front will have cleared all of New England by early morning. This front will lead to a sharp drop in dew points.
WEEKEND
The weekend will feel very refreshing after an oppressively humid Friday. By daybreak Saturday, dew points will have dropped 10 to 20 degrees from Friday afternoon, into the 50s for most. Temperatures will also cool off, albeit slightly and briefly, for Saturday.
There will be a lingering low pressure north of New England. This will lead to plenty of clouds on Saturday, although not overcast. There will also be a chance for pop-up showers Saturday afternoon. This chance will be in place for all of New England, but the best chance for showers will be across northern New England.
Euro showing where the best chance for showers will be on Saturday afternoon (don't take all that green as an all day rain):
By Sunday, low pressure will be replaced with high pressure. This will lead to drier and warmer conditions for all of New England. Highs are looking seasonable with highs in the 80s for most with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Dew points will begin to tick up, but remain in the comfortable to pleasant categories for most.
BEYOND
Heading into next week, a large area of high pressure will set up over the central United States with a trough building in the northeast. This may lead to an Omega Block style pattern. This will very likely lead to cool conditions, with below average temperatures dominating next week (starting around mid-week).
Right now, it doesn't look like it will be cold (cold being relative to August), with 70s dominating over 80s in southern and central New England and 60s dominating over 70s in the northern tier.
How unsettled it ends up being next week remains a big question mark, with models in a big disagreement over potential systems Monday night to Tuesday and again toward the end of the week.
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