The first storm (if you're not counting the weak overnight clippers over the past week as well) in this stretch has come and gone with a widespread few inches of snow. The next, larger, storm will arrive by Saturday night and last into Sunday. After that, the door remains open for storms to be nearby New England every 2-3 days through the next week.
PATTERN OVERVIEW
The pattern over North America opens with a strong and firm ridge over Alaska. This ridge then opens up into a stout zonal flow across the United States. A mainly flat and fast zonal flow over the east will keep low pressure systems moving across the country at a decent clip. This comes as New England will be on the battleground between the cold air mass to the north and milder air mass to the south. This is a favorable setup for storms to form and organize across the region.
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With that said, this is not a favorable setup for true blockbuster storms (18-24+ inch jackpot zones) or blizzards. The lack of amplification in the jet stream (when it becomes more wavy in nature as opposed to flatter) will allow storms to push through the region at a quick pace, preventing long-duration storms. This lack of amplification will also hold storm strengths in check. That's the main difference between what's happening now and what happened ten years ago, in February of 2015, when the pattern over the east was highly amplified.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
This system will involve an area of low pressure ejecting out of the Great Lakes. A secondary, surface low will form near the Mid-Atlantic and strengthen. This surface low will become the primary low as it tracks to the south of New England, likely near the benchmark. This is a favorable track for a widespread snowstorm across southern and central New England.
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The progressive nature of the storm and pattern will lead to a rather quick-hitter again. The storm will likely enter into New England Saturday evening and quickly spread eastward through the early morning hours. Many will see the peak of the storm from midnight through sunrise Sunday. Snow will gradually diminish in intensity and coverage through Sunday morning. Lighter and more scattered snow showers look to continue into the afternoon.
Below: CMC showing potential weather around midnight Sunday (1st image) and around midday Sunday (2nd image):
There are several factors lining up that are favorable for a decent thump of snow by Sunday afternoon for much of southern and central New England. These include a track near the benchmark, strong forcing & lift, the development of a coastal front, abundant moisture and decent dynamics. On top of this, high pressure north of New England should help keep cold air in place for snowfall. This will be a light and fluffy snow for most.
With the track trending farther south over the past few days, the chances for widespread mixing have steadily decreased. This will be an all-snow event for a majority of New England. There are limiting factors to the snowfall preventing this from being a very large snow-maker. The biggest is the progressive nature of the storm. This nature will prevent the storm from becoming too amplified and will prevent rapid strengthening. Dry air at the onset may eat away at some of the snow initially.
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Considering the factors working for and against snow, a solid dump of snow remains likely. A very widespread 5-8 inches should fall across southern and central New England, with some communities likely heading for 10 inches. The west to east movement of the storm will likely lead to a rather sharp northern cutoff in snowfall. Where this sets up will be determined by the storm's final track. Far southern New England will see less due to a wetter snow.
Much of the snowfall coming from this storm will likely fall in a 3-6 hour window early Sunday morning. Strong frontogenesis will likely lead to a period of snowfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour across southern New England for a few hours. Areas that see more persistent banding of this nature will have the best shot at 8-10 inches of snow. Exactly where this is most likely to set up will be track dependent.
Below: Current probability of at least 8 inches of snow through Sunday. It wouldn't be surprising to see the blue areas generally pushed a bit south in updates later today:
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The big question mark on the storm will be how far south it tracks. As stated before, trends over the past few days have steadily dropped the storm farther south. Trends over the past 12 hours have begun to level off the southern shift near the benchmark. Most guidance, both ensemble and deterministic, have the track near the benchmark. We'll need to keep watching the trends to see if shifts to the south continue today or not.
If they do, the heaviest snow will be pulled southward in New England and the currently forecast higher amounts will begin to drop off across northern Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire and southern Vermont. Some models have the strongest frontogenesis occurring just to the south of New England as opposed to over southern New England. A farther south track is the biggest way this storm could bust.
Below: Current FGEN analysis for early Sunday morning from FV3 (1st image) and NAM (2nd image). You can see NAM has the strongest frontogenesis occurring south of New England:
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
This storm has a much bigger range on potential tracks than the weekend storm. The one has been consistently shown to track generally outside the benchmark. This would lead to less of New England seeing snowfall and overall lower amounts. How close the storm is able to come to New England will determine where the northern cutoff in snowfall would be and how much falls to the south of the cutoff.
Below: Current probability of impactful winter weather Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This has trended lower in the past 24 hours:
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LATE NEXT WEEK
There is the potential for two more storms at the end of next week at this time. We wouldn't typically bother bringing these up at this time range, especially with the active weather coming before it. We're bringing them up now since the current pattern supports a storm near New England every 2-3 days, and the overall pattern is unlikely to break down before the end of next week. The key word here is "nearby". As seen with the current trends for the Tuesday to Wednesday storm, just because a storm will likely move in the vicinity of the region doesn't mean it will be a direct hit.
With that said, we'll likely be watching storms around Thursday of next week and possibly next weekend. Timing is, naturally, uncertain this far out, especially given how crowded the atmosphere is. Exact tracks are anyone's guess at this point, which will determine precipitation types (mainly snow is NOT a given at this point), amounts and overall impact, so there's no need to get worked up about any of these potential storms right now. We'll keep focus on this weekend and take it one at a time from here on out.