As the daily snapshot says, it's going to precipitate somewhere in New England every single day this week, starting today, with showers in the north country. Here's a breakdown of all the disturbances coming through, with the main course coming in Wednesday night and continuing through Friday Morning.
TODAY | IMPACT: NONE TO LOW
There will be some light showers across the north. The precipitation will be mainly in the morning to early afternoon. The latest guidance is showing very light showers and flurries, mainly across northern Vermont and New Hampshire.
TUESDAY MORNING | IMPACT: LOW
A very compact disturbance may impact Rhode Island and the Massachusetts South Shore early Tuesday morning. This will produce some light snow showers in these areas. This is a very weak disturbance and very likely won't produce more than a scattered dusting and will be gone by sunrise.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON | IMPACT: MODERATE
Snow will break out across northern New England around midday. The snow will likely peak in intensity around late afternoon to early evening. This peak could bring locally heavy snowfall, with 1 to 1.5 inch snowfall rates across southern Vermont and southwest New Hampshire.
This peak intensity, and the storm as a whole, will be short lived, so snow totals will remain rather low with a general 1-3 inches across much of northern New England and the higher elevations of Massachusetts. 3+ inches could fall in higher elevations of southern Vermont and southwest New Hampshire, where a winter weather advisory is posted. Eastern Massachusetts and points south will see all rain from this event.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING | IMPACT: HIGH
The main course that we're watching this week, a significant winter storm is increasingly likely for much of New England during this period. The storm looks to track right through the middle of New England, with the center possibly crossing the region along, or near, the Massachusetts border. This storm will be like many of the others this winter in that there will likely be snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain.
This is a complex storm with cold air draining from the south with mild air just to New England's south. There could be a temperature difference of 60 degrees from the Canadian border to Pennsylvania. The National Weather Service of Gray, Maine states:
" The key feature with this upcoming storm will again be a sharp baroclinic zone over the Northeast with temperatures as high as the low 70s pushing into southern Pennsylvania Thursday while temperatures near the Canadian Border will only approach 10 degrees."
What is likely is that the foothills of New Hampshire and Maine and points north, along with central and northern Vermont, will see significant snow, with upwards of a foot falling. Areas south of the foothills may see some mixing, furthermore, a dry slot may develop Thursday afternoon before picking back up Thursday evening.
Much of southern New England will be looking at quite a messy storm with snow, sleet and ice falling for much of Thursday. Since there will likely be mixing, several inches of snow is likely across much of Massachusetts, minus the south shore and Cape Cod.
On Saturday, I mentioned the possibility for an ice storm in areas of New England. This still holds with prolonged freezing rain possible in western Connecticut and western and central Massachusetts. Up to a quarter inch of ice is not out of the question. The big question for the ice storm will be how long it will take for the freezing rain to change to plain rain in this area. The areas that stay freezing rain will see increased ice where in areas that regular rain falls, ice amounts will be very limited.
This storm is so fickle at the moment that a single degree could be the difference between snow and sleet, freezing rain or plain rain in southern New England. This storm will likely see some fluctuations with the forecast since it is finicky at the moment, so stay with New England Storm Center all week long for coverage of this storm.
Honestly, I went back and forth about whether or not to even post this accumulation map as so much could change at this point. I decided to include it so you can see what the potential for snowfall is. The main questions are in southern New England, northern New England will likely see high snowfall amounts.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING | IMPACT: LOW
The pattern stays active after the big storm. Another, much weaker, disturbance looks to enter the region overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This may lead to widespread light snowfall, amounting to a dusting to a couple inches region wide.
NEXT WEEK | IMPACT: ???
This active pattern will likely continue into next week with disturbances (or full blown storms) possible Tuesday (2/28) and Thursday (3/2).