While a majority of this week will be very nice for most, New England is under general troughing aloft, which allows disturbances to form and pass through the region. High pressure at the surface will prevent washouts and torrential downpours and not all of New England will get in on every round of unsettled weather this week.
Today will be a dry day for all of New England as an expansive area of high pressure builds to the west. The disturbance that brought about showers and thunderstorms yesterday evening continues to slide away to the east. This will bring a generally bright day with seasonable temperatures and continued low humidity.
On Wednesday, a disturbance will rotate into northern New England despite a ridge of high pressure remaining at the surface. This will set up a "dirty ridge" type of situation, where high pressure is not strong enough to prevent clouds and showers from developing. These showers will be most numerous across northern New England, particularly Maine, but a couple isolated showers may drop into eastern portions of southern New England by the late afternoon or evening.
On Thursday, shower and storm chances increase for all of New England as a weak area of low pressure hangs around New England. The day will be far from a washout with many more dry hours than wet hours. Scattered showers and storms will likely begin to crop up around northern New England in the late morning hours before becoming more numerous and dropping south in the afternoon and evening.
CMC showing scattered showers and storms around Thursday afternoon:
Friday will be a day similar to Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure that has been building to the west crests over New England during the day. Without the weak low pressure systems around, dry weather for all of New England returns for the entire day. Temperatures will remain seasonable but humidity will continue to tick upward as the flow switches from northwest to southwest. Humidity won't be oppressive, but it will begin an upward trend by Thursday afternoon.
More widespread unsettled weather returns to the picture this weekend as a more organized frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes. With southerly flow increasing ahead of the incoming system, moisture will be raised, allowing for periods of showers and thunderstorms. It won't be raining for the entirety of the weekend, however, the timing of when rounds of showers come through remains uncertain. There will likely be breaks of dry weather between these rounds.
The frontal system will slowly push eastward, allowing for the generally unsettled weather to continue through the weekend and potentially into Monday as well. Periods of downpours will be possible with increasing moisture, but this currently doesn't look like an overly impactful event. Showers chances will be greatest on Saturday in western New England, closer to the system.
Another item to watch heading into this weekend (and really all week long) will be the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto. Ernesto will become a hurricane later this week as it takes the typical bend to the north, moving north of Hispaniola. The storm will likely begin to bend northeast as it approaches Bermuda.
From here, many models are now pointing toward a slight westward tug on the system (as seen on the forecast cone above). This is due to the slow movement of the frontal system this weekend. Since the system is moving slowly across the region, it will initially tug the hurricane closer to the eastern seaboard.
At this point, the tug closer to the east isn't overly concerning as the tug doesn't look to be significant. A majority of guidance still has Ernesto passing New England (and the entire eastern seaboard) well out to sea with the only impacts being a period of large swells at the coast. Continued trends will be watched as the timing of the weekend frontal system will play a role in just how close the storm gets.
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