The biggest snowstorm of the year for southern New England is approaching. I realize that saying the biggest snowstorm of the year isn't saying all that much for southern New England, but that is the case here. This complex storm has been fairly difficult to forecast over the past couple days, but now things are starting to come together in terms of storm details and snowfall amounts.
The jackpot zone is still looking to be toward western New England, i.e. the Worcester Hills, Berkshires and the southern Green Mountains. This zone of heaviest snow will likely stretch from the Berkshires and southern Greens into the New Hampshire lakes region and White Mountains. All of the areas listed in this paragraph have a very good chance of receiving at least 6 inches of snow. All of these areas are under a winter storm watch.
This storm is very different from New England's previous storms this winter in that there is not too much of a mixing and rain area. The storm will likely mix and potentially change to rain from Boston southward into Cape Cod. This will keep snowfall amounts lower in these areas.
Over the past few days, snow totals gave trended downward as the storm was looking to weaken upon arrival. Now, as the high resolution guidance starts coming in, these amounts may be pushed upward slightly. This is because the high resolution guidance is showing the shortwave weakening slower, which would lead to heavier snow across the area.
As of now, it appears that lower amounts will be seen across eastern Massachusetts, southeastern New Hampshire and eastern Maine. Still, several inches will likely fall, roads will be slick and the plows will be out in these areas as well.
Winter weather advisories are currently in place for much of Massachusetts, as well as all of Connecticut and Rhode Island. If the shortwave weakens slower, then these advisories could be upgraded to winter storm warnings. The NWS of Boston states:
"If some of the high resolution models turn out to be correct and the shortwave weakens slower...we will probably need to upgrade to Winter Storm Warnings for a good portion of the region. Since we are right on the cusp of a high end advisory/low end warning..."
The storm will kick off Monday evening in Connecticut and move in a northeast direction through New England. This storm looks to follow the trend of coming in two waves. The bulk of the precipitation will fall overnight Monday into Tuesday morning as the primary low swings south of New England with a lull Tuesday afternoon. The snow will pick back up in the late afternoon to evening as a secondary low swings through northern New England.
TIMING
Monday afternoon: Clouds fill in across New England.
Monday evening: Snow breaks out in Connecticut and begins moving northeastward.
Monday night: Steady snow across western New England, light snow showers in eastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire.
Around midnight: Steady snow across southern New England and southern New Hampshire.
Tuesday morning: Heaviest snow falling in southern New England, snow spreads across all of northern New Hampshire and Eastern Maine.
Around noon: Snow lightens up in southern New England, remains steady across much of Northern New England.
Tuesday afternoon: Light snow showers across much of New England.
Tuesday evening: Snow showers continue.
Tuesday night: Snow begins tapering off overnight.
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