Beautiful Easter Weekend on Tap for New England Albeit with Winds

A strengthening southeast flow today behind a warm front will bring very mild temperatures to the region. We won't go as far to say "a summer preview", but the warmest day in months is on the way for today. It's a brief warm-up, but the cool-down afterward only brings us back to more seasonable levels for Easter Sunday.

This stiff southwest wind combined with very warm temperatures in the mid-levels will bring high temperatures into the mid 60s mid 70s across northern New England and the 70s to low 80s in southern New England. Exactly how warm it ends up getting will come down to how much sun can break through the cloud cover this afternoon.

Below: HRRR showing potential temperatures late this afternoon:

Once New England gets fully within the warm sector, at least partial clearing should occur. The amount of clearing will be what decides whether or not the 70s for northern New England valleys and 80s for southern New England can be achieved. Should clouds be more stubborn, not as much mixing will occur and temperatures will be held in check.

Plenty of sun will allow for deep mixing combined with the strong sun angle this time of year. This kind of setup (a full warm sector in the afternoon hours) supports some thinning of the clouds, but should clouds be stubborn in the afternoon, temperatures will not get to where they're forecast. It's always a bit tough to say just how much clouds will break in this setup. It seems it's poised to be a mostly cloudy day altogether with enough breaks to help boost temperatures.

Below: NAM showing potential cloud cover early Saturday afternoon:

As for the showery side, the afternoon is trending toward mostly dry conditions for all of New England. A few scattered showers will likely be around throughout the afternoon, but forcing will be weak, so activity will likely be limited through much of the day. Activity is more likely across the northern tier of New England throughout the day.

From about mid-afternoon through the evening, showers will likely become more numerous as the system's cold front begins to cross. Increased humidity in the warm sector will combine with lift from the front to bring about these showers. It may be able to create a few thunderstorms as well as CAPE values build to the 500-1,000 j/kg range.

Forcing along the cold front will provide the basis for increased shower and storm activity from northwest to southeast. Overall, the chances for scattered thunderstorms have increased for this evening. With that said, storm activity should still be isolated to scattered rather than widespread. The cold front itself is not very sharp, so large-scale lift will be limited.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather Saturday evening:

Another note for Saturday is that winds will be gusty. These gusts will likely peak in the 25-35mph range. Gusts will be out of the southwest, which is helping to get these warm temperatures into here. While the southwesterly nature of the wind will keep the chilly ocean air at bay for most, it will also help keep southern facing coastlines cooler, keeping Rhode Island's coast, Cape Cod & the Islands, Cape Ann and Downeast Maine cooler than the rest.

The cold front will pass through New England beginning in the late afternoon across northwest areas and will steadily slide southeast through the evening into Sunday morning. This will bring an end to the very warm conditions. High pressure will build to New England's northwest with the low pressure remaining over the Canadian Maritimes. This will bring a breezy and cooler day for Easter.

Despite the cold front and cooler weather, it should still get back to around seasonable levels for many on Easter, thanks to the return of more sunshine and a sun angle equivalent to late summer. The high pressure to the northwest may bring a glancing shot of polar air to the northern tier, allowing for a generally cooler day (relative to average) than central and southern New England.

Winds will be gusty on Sunday as well, likely going up a couple notches from Saturday. Gusts of 35-45mph will be possible region-wide. Winds will be strongest across the eastern half of Maine, where widespread gusts of 40-50+mph will be possible. These winds will come as the pressure gradient tightens between a building high to the northwest and the departing frontal system to the northeast. Maine will be closest to the frontal system and farthest removed from the high pressure, allowing for stronger gusts.

Below: Euro showing potential wind gusts around midday Sunday:

As for Marathon Monday, the timing on a frontal system has been trending toward a later arrival Monday into Tuesday. New England looks to squeeze into a ridge between a departing low pressure and incoming frontal system. This lends itself to a dry and quiet day with seasonable temperatures. It will likely be chilly in the morning with afternoon highs in the low 60s inland. The high pressure will allow for an afternoon sea breeze to develop, leading to a light head wind and cooler temperatures in Boston.