April is a time of transition for New England. Spring is trying to break out while winter tries its best to hang on for as long as possible. So which season will ultimately win this battle for the month? To be frank, it looks like both seasons will get victories this April.
Starting off the month will feature a southward dip in the jet stream over the west. When the jet dips in the west, that typically means it rises in the east, putting New England on the "warm side". This looks to be the case as next week's temperatures across New England are looking seasonable to warm, with the exception of Wednesday (4/5).
As we get into the second week of the month, the pattern is looking likely to flip, giving the west a bump in temperatures while New England drops back on the cool side of things. Heading toward the middle of the month, the NOAA gives northern New England a 50-60% chance of below average temperatures, while southern New England has a slightly lower chance. Just how cool it will get is a big question mark.
Right now, it looks like much of the country will be below normal, with the far west jumping above normal. This could indicate that the coldest temps will be in the middle of the country with jet stream starting to rebound as it gets toward New England. This could lead to only slightly below to seasonable weather. This would also be why northern New England has a greater chance of below average temps than southern New England. The deciding factor on this will be how the many other factors that go into determining high temps pan out.
Getting toward the middle and latter parts of the month gets tricky. Mid to late April is when winter patterns begin to break down. How long it takes for this to occur and exactly how this will occur remains to be seen. It does look like the pattern will flip back to giving the west chilly weather.
Based on current guidance, it looks like New England is more "on the edge" of a below average trend with the middle of the country remaining below average and the west looking above average. I suspect this will translate to seasonable weather with some stubborn cold air shots coming into the region.
Another big factor in April temperatures other than the jet stream position is the fact that La Nina has officially ended. El Nino is expected to develop later in the summer. This transition period between La Nina and El Nino typically causes New England to see a cooler spring and start to the summer.
Overall, it looks like April will truly be a battle of warm and cold, with both sides winning at points this month. The NOAA outlook for the entire month has New England seeing "equal chances" of above or below average temperatures. This is mainly because the temperatures look to bounce back and forth all month.
As far as precipitation goes, New England is looking at a very average month. The atmospheric rivers that have been slamming the west will very likely shut off this month. This would end the basically weekly cross country storms that have been coming through for a while now. Major snowstorms, in all likelihood, are now done for the season.
Looking back at March's outlook, nearly everything panned out as I expected. Temperatures were not quite as below average, or consistently below average as I expected, but the overall trend did not produce much spring warmth, which is what I predicted. I also predicted that the region would likely see nor'easters and snowstorms. I specifically said that the middle of the month would be very active, and right in the middle of March, we saw the Great Nor'easter of 2023, which dropped over three feet of snow in parts of the region.