Another Saturday soaker is in store for New England this upcoming weekend. While the storm is looking to be an overall low impact event, it will still bring inches of ill-timed rain to the region once again, along with gusty winds and a cool-down for the start of next week.
An area of low pressure will track to New England's north, with a secondary, coastal low spawning to the south of the region and moving just offshore of New England. This low will strengthen as it moves through the area and become the primary low.
FRIDAY
All of New England will be under clouds on Friday as the system moves toward the region. Rain will overspread New England from southwest to northeast during the day, with rain likely beginning to fall in Connecticut by late morning and spreading further north and east by the afternoon through the evening.
The rainfall on Friday and Friday night will generally be lighter than what will come on Saturday through Saturday night for northern New England. Southern New England will likely see their heaviest rain Friday night into Saturday morning, though the showers will continue throughout Saturday region-wide.
Expected weather Friday night:
SATURDAY
Multiple areas of low pressure will merge to form the coastal low off New England's coast. Since these won't become organised until the system begins to lift into northern New England, southern New England will see more scattered showers and downpours during the day Saturday instead of a continuous all-day rain.
That is to say sometimes it will be just drizzling while other times it will be a downpour. This will continue throughout the entire day. The further north in New England you go, the more numerous the showers and downpours will be as the storm continues to organize.
Expected weather Saturday evening with heavier rain in northern New England:
The system doesn't become very organised until Saturday evening when the storm will likely be in the Gulf of Maine. The heaviest of the rain will likely come to northern New England Saturday afternoon through the overnight hours as the storm becomes more organized. The bulk of the system will have passed southern New England by then, so the heaviest of the rain will likely have passed that area by then, with lighter, scattered showers occurring.
The atmosphere will relatively primed for heavy downpours, so some torrential rainfall is possible. These downpours will produce the bulk of the rain totals. Despite this, flooding is not much of a concern with this storm as the downpours will be moving along quickly. There also isn't as much moisture in the air as there was during New England's flooding events of the summer.
Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s during the storm, so it won't one of those really raw, cold fall rain storms when the rain is falling in the low 40s.
SUNDAY
The, now organised, storm system will be pulling away from New England by Sunday morning. It's exit will be slow, however, and will likely cycle continued, lighter showers into the region throughout Sunday. There will generally be more frequent showers the further north in New England you go on Sunday. The northern third of New England may see another day like Saturday whereas southern New England is looking at more scattered showers.
Expected weather Sunday afternoon, showing more showers in northern New England:
The bigger story on Sunday will be the higher winds. It will be gusty throughout Sunday. As of now, the wind doesn't look to reach damaging levels, but it will be very noticeable. Gusts will generally be in the 25-40mph range. Northern New England winds won't be as strong as the storm is still pulling away from the area.
RAIN TOTALS
When all is said and done by Sunday afternoon, much of the region will likely have seen a half an inch to an inch of rain, with generally more in the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, where two inches (or more) may fall.
Again, flooding is not much of a concern at this time. With the possibility of heavy downpours, the Weather Prediction Center does have northern New England in a "marginal" risk for excessive rainfall, which means there is a 5% chance of flash flooding, which is, clearly, a low risk. Remember the expected rainfall will be falling over the course of 2 and a half days.
There is a chance for rivers in Vermont to rise by Monday, but they are currently forecast to stay below minor flood stage.
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